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Reflationary Trends Weighing on Rates
The past few weeks have seen rates trend upwards across developed markets, particularly in the US.
Russia: the worst is behind us...
In recent years, the Russian economy has faced two very different types of shocks: first, a major decline in its terms of trade due to falling oil prices, and second, economic and financial sanctions.
After years of negotiations, OPEC members have finally reached an agreement. It has still to be signed on November 30th but is already a new step towards more supportive oil prices.
October 17, 2016
The recent publications of the minutes of the FOMC meeting held at the end of September, at which the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, are showing more information over the interest rate hike timing.
In the US, retail sales rebounded in September (+0.6% MoM and +2.7% YoY) amid a surge in motor vehicle purchases and a rise in discretionary spending.
Nearly flat performance for European equities with the Stoxx 600 closing at 340 up by only 0.09% for the week.
The Fed published its latest minutes, pointing to a high probability of a rate hike in December.
October 21, 2016
European equity markets closed little changed this month, with the UK outperforming a notch, in the hope that the country would be able to face the consequences of Brexit.
Euro investment grade corporate bonds posted negative returns in September. The lack of new policy measures from the ECB and anxiety regarding the future actions of the Federal Reserve generated weakness in the market.
In the context of a gradual rate hiking cycle of the Federal Reserve, the fundamental recovery in the emerging market asset class and the very attractive valuations that it exhibits, emerging market debt is a very favorable segment in a low yield environment.
September 29, 2016
While the political news-flow calmed down significantly over the summer months, the political agenda for the coming months will provide ample new sources of uncertainty.
September 23, 2016
The global financial markets posted overall positive returns in August. In the US, energy-related equities posted substantial gains while the market ended the month flat overall.
September 22, 2016
Emerging markets are facing the same three risks: the commodity super-cycle, the Chinese hard landing and policy mismanagement, and the hawkish Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Better macro-economic data emanated from the US over the month of August with encouraging employment figures and consumer confidence prints pointing towards an improving activity cycle.
On the regulatory front in Europe, we witnessed some developments as the risks on the coupon cancellation of bank contingent convertibles abated thanks to a change in the way the ECB sets capital requirements.
Emerging market equities are our strongest regional overweight conviction, as (a) they have the highest re-rating potential (with a still-attractive relative valuation), (b) economic growth is stabilising and (c) the scope of USD appreciation is limited.
Global Head of Economic Research
Head of Emerging Equity Management
Head of Fundamental Europe Equity Management
Koen Van de Maele
Global Head of Investment Engineering
Deputy Head of Fundamental Equity Management
Rudi Van den Eynde
Head of Thematic Global Equity
Global Head of Fixed Income Management
Head of High Yield & Credit Arbitrage management
Global Head of Sustainable and Responsible Investments
Head of Asset Allocation
Deputy Head of High Yield & Credit Arbitrage management
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