The State of the Polarized Union

Erfahren Sie mehr über den disziplinierten Ansatz von Candriam für Anleihe-Investments. Erfahren Sie, wie Emittentenresearch, ESG-Integration und Prognosesicherheit von Risiken helfen, Volatilität zu bewältigen und robuste Anleiheportfolios aufzubauen.

Global activity proved resilient into the new year as policy uncertainty around US trade eased from late-2025 peaks and the IMF nudged world growth forecasts modestly higher. Within the euro area, Q4 growth accelerated, but January PMIs were mixed – manufacturing stabilised while services softened, pointing to a slight loss of momentum at the start of 2026.

Schwellenländeranleihen (EMD) haben die Anleger in letzter Zeit gut behandelt. Staatsanleihen in Hartwährung haben von hohen Kuponrenditen, engeren Spreads und einigen gut getimten Erholungen profitiert, während Unternehmensanleihen einem ähnlichen Drehbuch folgten.

European equities have remained in positive territory since our last Equity Committee, benefiting from diversification outside the US and improved macro signals. GDP growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2025.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

We are moving to a neutral stance on US duration this month after our tactical long. While the macro backdrop remains broadly resilient, the balance of risks across the curve has shifted sufficiently to warrant a recalibration of our positioning.

In the US, the delayed job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 70k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.