Coffee break

Rates Up, Earnings Next

US services ISM and consumer sentiment will test the resilience of activity as higher energy prices and borrowing costs weigh on households.

US labour markets take centre stage: September payrolls, JOLTS and ADP will test hiring momentum, while ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence will gauge the resilience of activity and spending.

The Fed will take centre stage, with markets pricing a roughly 90% chance of a rate hike after the August core CPI surprise.

The ECB will take centre stage in Europe, with a 25bp rate hike widely expected, further widening the policy gap with the Fed.

The US labour market will take centre stage, with the jobs report set to test whether recent signs of resilience in activity can coexist with still-firm inflation.

Jackson Hole will take centre stage, with Fed Chair Warsh and his global peers expected to shed light on the policy outlook amid elevated long-end yields and lingering trade and inflation uncertainty. Investor focus will then turn to US PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge so far, alongside income and spending data for further evidence on the resilience of the US consumer.

Global growth will take centre stage, with Friday’s flash PMIs providing a timely read on momentum across the US, Eurozone and UK, complemented by China’s July activity data.

The US inflation report will take centre stage consumer inflation remains far above the Fed’s target and household purchasing power is eroding gradually, an important political feature ahead of this year’s mid-term elections.

The US labour market will take centre stage, culminating in the July employment report on Friday with JOLTS and ADP data earlier in the week.

Earnings season will remain the main focus, with Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon reporting Q2 results.

Earnings will stay on top of the agenda, with several industrials and energy companies reporting.

US CPI/PPI, retail sales and industrial production will provide a fresh check on inflation, consumption and growth.

The key event for investors will be the annual NATO summit in Ankara, with any shifts in allied positioning or defence commitments likely to shape the geopolitical backdrop.

Investors will watch whether the US-Iran 60-day diplomatic window evolves into a durable peace agreement or merely a longer ceasefire.

On top of the US-Iran negotiations, investors will focus on central banks, with decisions due from the Fed under Kevin Warsh, the BoJ, the BoE and the Banco Central do Brazil, among others.

The ECB is likely to announce a rate hike in order to curb rising inflation due to increased energy prices.

The market-moving US jobs report for May is expected to show 93k payroll gains, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%.

Investors will keep a close eye on a possible (de)escalation in Iran, similar to previous weeks.

As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually closed for 80 days, investors continue looking for signals of easing tension.

Exiting this super week of earnings release, market reaction is expected to be more driven by the evolution around the Strait of Hormuz rather than strong fundamentals, with a handful of software and cybersecurity companies reporting.

The week ahead is crucial, with many events unfolding simultaneously. Obviously, a first area of focus will continue to be the evolution of the Iran war and any signs of progress at that front.

Back to fundamentals

The main focus remains the ongoing situation in the Middle East, and any signs of an agreement.