Keep calm and carry on
The global cycle is still catching its breath. World PMI edged up only marginally in June, still consistent with instant growth close to 2.5% in Q2.
Since coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began on Saturday 28 February, the conflict has spread across the region.
These events introduce significant geopolitical uncertainty for the weeks ahead and heighten risks for financial markets and investors.
As the situation continues to evolve rapidly, we will regularly update this page with the latest analyses and insights from our experts to help you assess the implications for the global economy and asset allocation.
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Asset Allocation
Latest Update: Thursday April 09
(in English only)
Impact on Fixed Income
Latest Update: Friday March 06
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Scarcity, Rivalry and the New Logic of Asset Allocation
The shift from a “soft” to a “hard” world is a durable regime change, driven by geopolitical rivalry, AI competition and structural resource scarcity. -
Insatiable
Growth is slowing. Consumers are becoming more selective. Yet demand for strategic assets continues to accelerate. -
Hormuz, we have a problem. Do we?
Bond markets are pricing the war in Iran. Equity markets are not. That divergence has become a defining feature in the past month. The conflict has now moved beyond the initial shock phase and has entered a regime of repeated escalation, partial de-escalation and unresolved disruption. -
Escalate. De-escalate. Repeat.
Financial markets have entered a regime where escalation and de-escalation are no longer discrete events, but part of a repeating pattern. The war in Iran has not evolved linearly; it has oscillated, with periods of intensity followed by temporary pauses, each feeding renewed uncertainty rather than resolution. -
Navigating the Straits
Financial markets have entered a phase where geopolitics, commodities and monetary policy are interacting more directly than at any point in recent years. -
Digital Divide
The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period. -
Battles on multiple fronts
The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .