Asset Allocation

Bond markets are pricing the war in Iran. Equity markets are not. That divergence has become a defining feature in the past month. The conflict has now moved beyond the initial shock phase and has entered a regime of repeated escalation, partial de-escalation and unresolved disruption.

Financial markets have entered a regime where escalation and de-escalation are no longer discrete events, but part of a repeating pattern. The war in Iran has not evolved linearly; it has oscillated, with periods of intensity followed by temporary pauses, each feeding renewed uncertainty rather than resolution.

Financial markets have entered a phase where geopolitics, commodities and monetary policy are interacting more directly than at any point in recent years.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .

Global growth is slow but steady, AI is driving investment cycles, and central banks are backstopping risk. Explore our 2026 outlook: equity conviction, monetary policy shifts, and the evolving role of gold and EM debt in balanced portfolios.

Global markets enter November with better visibility than at any point this year – growth stronger than expected, inflation lower than expected and policy still broadly supportive.

Economic signals remain uneven, data visibility is clouded by the US government shutdown, and inflation is edging higher again.

Since last Sunday (October 5), France has been plunged into a new political crisis — unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just a few hours after forming his government, due to partisan deadlock and his inability to build a stable majority.

The global economy approaches the final stretch of 2025 at an inflection point.

From January through the end of May, European equities reclaimed leadership. In local currency, the MSCI EMU beat the MSCI World by roughly six to seven percentage points, and the quality of that advance was unmistakably value-tilted: banks and insurers led from the front, with telecom services, utilities and industrials providing consistent breadth.

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An irresistible momentum is shaping global markets, as investors face a paradox of rising risk perception alongside rallying assets. Economic data releases, trade tariffs and geopolitical signals remain noisy – yet financial markets continue to advance.

As we write these lines, the US market is approaching its historical peak, last reached in February 2025, and most asset classes have posted positive returns in local currency since the start of the year.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the global economy showed surprising resilience in early 2025, and inflation continued to normalise.

The global economy remains in a delicate state of balance. The US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback but uncertainty remains high, especially with the US still imposing significant duties.

Although navigating by the stars can seem brave and adventurous, we would not recommend it on financial markets. Better be equipped with a solid compass !

The global economic cycle is not ending yet – it is reshaping. Following a volatile first quarter and trade escalation at the start of April, May 2025 shows de-escalation amid numerous trade tariff headlines.

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the Republican Party's control of both houses of Congress, has resulted in a new political landscape in the United States. What key decisions must the new administration make? What impact will these decisions have on the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and investors?

April 2025 marks a turning point in the global economic narrative. In the wake of the United States’ sharp tariff escalation – dubbed “Liberation Day” – investors are confronting the ripple effects of a protectionist revival.

Since his return to the White House, Trump has announced a series of country or sectoral tariff increases. If we combine all the measures announced before 2 April (20% on China, 25% on Canada and Mexico with exemption for goods that comply with the USMCA , 25% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles and parts), the average tariff rate on US imports was on course to reach 11% from 2.5% end of 2024.

Released last September, former ECB President Mario Draghi’s report urged the EU to revive and boost its competitiveness. At the end of January, the European Commission presented the Competitiveness Compass to allow Europe to revive economic growth and secure prosperity.

As economic uncertainties intensify in the United States, European fiscal policies are emerging as a beacon of hope.

For the past decade, US stock markets have largely dominated the rest of the world, thanks to strong momentum in the technology sector and a favorable macroeconomic environment. Paradoxically, since the election of Donald Trump, this trend has reversed and the US market seems to have temporarily lost this leadership role.

We maintain an overweight stance on global equities, adopting a more balanced approach across sectors and regions. Notably, we have a renewed interest in Europe and China, as the catch-up trade in these regions still has potential upside: a range of macroeconomic, geopolitical and technological factors have introduced notable shifts that investors must carefully assess.