Fixed Income

We maintain a neutral strategic stance on US duration and rely on tactical implementation. Growth momentum continues to look resilient rather than fragile, and the labour market is showing signs of stabilising at lower levels rather than accelerating deterioration. Survey data supports this view, and high-frequency growth tracking remains firm, reinforcing our assessment that recession risks are not the central case in the near term.

As it has over the past 2 years, credit remains an asset class of choice for global fixed income investors. The combination of enduringly sound fundamentals, powerful technical forces, and generous yields has rendered credit a rare anchor of stability in a world still wrestling with volatility and policy uncertainty.

We continue to view the labour market as the key determinant for US rates. If employment stabilises, we expect the long end of the curve – particularly maturities beyond ten years – to move higher.

Global credit markets have entered the final quarter of 2025 in remarkably good shape. Corporate fundamentals remain robust: earnings across sectors have generally surprised to the upside, leverage is low, and balance sheets are strong, in contrast to sovereign balance sheets, where leverage remains elevated.

The global high yield asset class offers a compelling blend of income and cushion, making it an attractive allocation for investors navigating a complex landscape.

The US economy has entered unknown territory in more ways than one.

Candriam has long been recognised for its leadership in ESG, but our reputation is equally rooted in deep credit expertise — analysing not just issuers, but the entire architecture of financial markets. This perspective is particularly critical in complex areas such as bank capital, where instruments like CoCos play a decisive role.

The global rates landscape is entering a decisive new phase as the long-standing flatness of yield curves gives way to steepness that has not been seen since 2011. The term premium, the additional interest by bondholders investing in longer-dated bonds versus short-term bonds, is back after an absence of many years.

On rates markets, August and the first week of September were marked by a noticeable de-correlation on both sides of the Atlantic. While Euro rates moved sideways, Treasury yields declined significantly, especially at the short end of the curve. This shift and steepening of the curve reflects a weakening labour market, accelerating Fed rate cut expectations.

Yields remain elevated across both U.S. and European markets, offering attractive carry for investors in both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY).

June proved to be a fraught month for market participants—marked not only by record-breaking heatwaves, but also by a barrage of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments that tested investor nerves.

Impact investments have kept rising over the past decades, reaching $1.6 trillion USD according to the Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN) – that is $ 1.6 trillion USD in assets allocated toward solutions supporting the Sustainable Development Goals.

May and the first two weeks of June saw a good performance from risk assets, while rates assets underperformed.

You want to talk about euro swap spreads versus US swap spreads? We watch that, too. But to be honest, that graph is one of the last things we look at when managing euro fixed income aggregate portfolios. So if you want to see it, you’ll have to read all the rest of this page first.

In what can only be described as an event-packed May, financial markets navigated a minefield of global macro developments: escalating US–China trade tensions, a surge in Japanese government bond yields, and renewed concern about fiscal sustainability across developed markets.

After the hit to risky assets and even US Treasury bonds in the wake of the so-called “Liberation Day” announcement of a far higher tariff regime, some semblance of calm returned to markets.

European yields have returned to more historical norms following the years in the low-yield wilderness, while the German fiscal situation is reaching an inflection point.

April unfolded as a month of intense turbulence in financial markets, driven by a barrage of political manoeuvrings, economic uncertainty, and shifting monetary policies. Markets were rattled by elevated tariffs, escalating rhetoric, and retaliatory measures that prompted investors to reassess growth prospects, price in heightened recession risks, and retreat from riskier assets.

The bond markets in March were already abuzz with talk of tariffs, as the Trump administration implemented previously delayed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. .

According to the Institute for Economics & Peace, there are 56 active conflicts in the world, the greatest number since the end of World War II. Increasingly complex geopolitics and ReArm Europe are keeping investors on our toes, analytically.

Navigating fixed income markets can be a daunting task for those unfamiliar with their intricacies. A multitude of factors – fundamentals, valuations and technicals – can impact a wide range of instruments – sovereigns (developed & emerging), corporates (investment grade and high yield) –, contributing to a highly complex financial landscape.

Over the past weeks, bond markets faced significant volatility primarily due to a barrage of announcements from the White House.

Over the month of January, rates markets ended up at much the same point where they stood at the beginning of the year, but masking significant intra-month volatility. Usually, an inauguration would not be expected to cause much turbulence, as policy proposals should be well-understood and priced in.

The global macro environment will likely favour further dollar strength, despite the strong appreciation since the US elections in early November. Under President Trump’s second administration, we may even test the dollar highs seen during Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve chairmanship in the 1980s.

The last month of 2024 was a difficult one for the markets. Most major rates markets sold off, with the US 10-year rising by 40 basis points. At the same time, risk assets offered relatively little respite.