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Middle East Conflict

Since coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began on Saturday 28 February, the conflict has spread across the region.

These events introduce significant geopolitical uncertainty for the weeks ahead and heighten risks for financial markets and investors.

As the situation continues to evolve rapidly, we will regularly update this page with the latest analyses and insights from our experts to help you assess the implications for the global economy and asset allocation.

(In English only)

Asset Allocation

Latest Update: Thursday April 09
(in English only)

Impact on Fixed Income

Latest Update: Friday March 06

Latest analyses

  • Earnings take centre stage

    The Fed has delivered a hike where investors just months ago expected cuts. Markets now anticipate further tightening through 2027, yet US equities remain higher this year. Earnings expectations have held up through the reversal in monetary expectations. The upcoming Q3 reporting season will show whether companies can deliver on them.
  • Tropical beach surrounded by lush vegetation symbolizing portfolio diversification and resilience in a changing market environment

    Keep calm and carry on

    The global cycle is still catching its breath. World PMI edged up only marginally in June, still consistent with instant growth close to 2.5% in Q2.
  • A scenic mountain valley viewed from a rocky hiking trail, with towering granite cliffs, dense evergreen forests, and a sunlit meadow below. The landscape is framed by trees under a clear blue sky.

    Insatiable

    Growth is slowing. Consumers are becoming more selective. Yet demand for strategic assets continues to accelerate.

  • Hormuz, we have a problem. Do we?

    Bond markets are pricing the war in Iran. Equity markets are not. That divergence has become a defining feature in the past month. The conflict has now moved beyond the initial shock phase and has entered a regime of repeated escalation, partial de-escalation and unresolved disruption.
  • Pink cherry blossom branches in full bloom with traditional Japanese house and hillside covered in sakura trees in spring

    Escalate. De-escalate. Repeat.

    Financial markets have entered a regime where escalation and de-escalation are no longer discrete events, but part of a repeating pattern. The war in Iran has not evolved linearly; it has oscillated, with periods of intensity followed by temporary pauses, each feeding renewed uncertainty rather than resolution.

  • Navigating the Straits

    Financial markets have entered a phase where geopolitics, commodities and monetary policy are interacting more directly than at any point in recent years.
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