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Global activity proved resilient into the new year as policy uncertainty around US trade eased from late-2025 peaks and the IMF nudged world growth forecasts modestly higher. Within the euro area, Q4 growth accelerated, but January PMIs were mixed – manufacturing stabilised while services softened, pointing to a slight loss of momentum at the start of 2026.

Growth and inflation indicators ended the year on a steadier footing.

Contrarian voices grew louder in October while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang warned that “China will win the AI race”. Nonetheless, October proved positive for hedge funds, despite brief market volatility tied to US-China trade developments.

September broke with its reputation for subdued volatility as global risk assets extended their summer rally.

Activity paused leading up to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where a potential pivot in Federal Reserve policy was revealed by Chairman Jerome Powell, hinting at a possible easing cycle.

Merger Arbitrage is a sophisticated investment strategy that capitalizes on the price difference between a target company's stock price in the market and the acquisition price during mergers and acquisitions.

As Lionel Richie put it in his 1980’s hit, “What is happening here? Something’s going on that’s not quite clear.”

Markets have benefited from the de-escalation of the tariffs narrative but uncertainty levels remain very high.