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After the big bill last week, markets will focused on big tariffs as little clarity has emerged on what will happen as the tariff deadline looms.

As we write these lines, the US market is approaching its historical peak, last reached in February 2025, and most asset classes have posted positive returns in local currency since the start of the year.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the global economy showed surprising resilience in early 2025, and inflation continued to normalise.

With US markets closed Friday for the July 4 holiday, the job report for June drops Thursday. Employment growth and wages will be critical for gauging economic momentum and shaping Fed expectations.

The global economy remains in a delicate state of balance. The US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback but uncertainty remains high, especially with the US still imposing significant duties.

Markets have benefited from the de-escalation of the tariffs narrative but uncertainty levels remain very high.

May and the first two weeks of June saw a good performance from risk assets, while rates assets underperformed.