Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the global economy showed surprising resilience in early 2025, and inflation continued to normalise.

With US markets closed Friday for the July 4 holiday, the job report for June drops Thursday. Employment growth and wages will be critical for gauging economic momentum and shaping Fed expectations.

The global economy remains in a delicate state of balance. The US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback but uncertainty remains high, especially with the US still imposing significant duties.

Markets have benefited from the de-escalation of the tariffs narrative but uncertainty levels remain very high.

May and the first two weeks of June saw a good performance from risk assets, while rates assets underperformed.

You want to talk about euro swap spreads versus US swap spreads? We watch that, too. But to be honest, that graph is one of the last things we look at when managing euro fixed income aggregate portfolios. So if you want to see it, you’ll have to read all the rest of this page first.

European equities closed May higher but are no longer outperforming US equities.

Flash PMI data for June will provide an early read on global manufacturing and services, highlighting growth momentum, inflation risks, and potential monetary policy shifts.