The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its funds rate after having observed a pause since December 2024.

On rates markets, August and the first week of September were marked by a noticeable de-correlation on both sides of the Atlantic. While Euro rates moved sideways, Treasury yields declined significantly, especially at the short end of the curve. This shift and steepening of the curve reflects a weakening labour market, accelerating Fed rate cut expectations.

Activity paused leading up to the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, where a potential pivot in Federal Reserve policy was revealed by Chairman Jerome Powell, hinting at a possible easing cycle.

The global economy approaches the final stretch of 2025 at an inflection point. Financial markets, unsettled for much of the year by tariff escalations and a slowing US economy, now find comfort in an accommodative monetary policy path, less uncertainty in trade negotiations and a potential major political shift in the making at the Federal Reserve.

From January through the end of May, European equities reclaimed leadership. In local currency, the MSCI EMU beat the MSCI World by roughly six to seven percentage points, and the quality of that advance was unmistakably value-tilted: banks and insurers led from the front, with telecom services, utilities and industrials providing consistent breadth.

The ECB interest rate decision will be closely watched for how the bank balances inflation nearly at target with sluggish growth in the region.

Markets will be laser-focused on the US job report, representing one of the last major data releases ahead of the September FOMC.

Yields remain elevated across both U.S. and European markets, offering attractive carry for investors in both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY).