Europe may be breaking its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, but energy autonomy will not be achieved by changing the energy mix alone. It will require stronger grids, greater industrial capacity and more resilient critical-material supply chains.

September was characterised by resilient global economic activity, persistent inflationary pressures and increasing concerns over monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. In the United States, economic momentum remained robust, supported by AI-related investment and resilient consumption, despite signs of labour market moderation. In Europe, economic indicators continued to improve, with manufacturing and services PMIs signalling greater resilience.

The Fed has delivered a hike where investors just months ago expected cuts. Markets now anticipate further tightening through 2027, yet US equities remain higher this year. Earnings expectations have held up through the reversal in monetary expectations. The upcoming Q3 reporting season will show whether companies can deliver on them.

We retain a modest duration overweight in the two-to-five-year segment after September's sharp sell-off. Higher real yields have made valuations more appealing, but we keep conviction limited. Our strongest argument remains monetary policy: markets discount a terminal Fed rate around 4.75% , leaving room for a less extensive tightening cycle to support shorter maturities.

After a period in which strong earnings helped equities absorb rising interest rates, higher bond yields have begun to weigh more on equity sentiment. The third-quarter reporting season will now test whether companies can sustain market confidence through solid results and credible guidance. Earnings expectations continue to rise, providing an encouraging starting point, while also raising the bar for companies to deliver.

Rates Up, Earnings Next

US services ISM and consumer sentiment will test the resilience of activity as higher energy prices and borrowing costs weigh on households.

US labour markets take centre stage: September payrolls, JOLTS and ADP will test hiring momentum, while ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence will gauge the resilience of activity and spending.

When climate indices disagree, is the gap simply noise - or a risk that credit markets price? This paper connects academic research with investment practice to explore climate beta uncertainty in US and European corporate bonds.

AI’s infrastructure boom is drawing some of the world’s largest technology companies deeper into debt markets.

Leadership transitions can affect strategy execution, organisational stability, investor confidence and long-term value creation. Yet effective leadership governance goes beyond selecting the right CEO today. Boards also need to anticipate the leadership capabilities their company will require for its next strategic phase.

Credit markets have remained resilient, with yields still at interesting levels. But tight spreads, rising bond issuance and growing dispersion mean selectivity is becoming increasingly important.

Credit markets have spent the summer displaying an almost improbable degree of composure. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to tanker traffic and sharp swings in oil prices repeatedly unsettled rates markets, while the continuing war in Ukraine has ensured that geopolitical risk never receded far from view.

Following the technology- and momentum-led correction in July, global equity markets resumed the upward trend seen since the beginning of the year.

Global activity remained resilient in August, though regional divergences persisted.

Solid growth is giving central banks more room to be hawkish.

We retain a modest tactical duration overweight between the 3-5Y tenors on the Treasury curve.

The Fed will take centre stage, with markets pricing a roughly 90% chance of a rate hike after the August core CPI surprise.

Robotics is entering a new era. Once confined mainly to industrial production lines, it is rapidly expanding into healthcare, logistics, mobility, agriculture, and consumer applications.

The ECB will take centre stage in Europe, with a 25bp rate hike widely expected, further widening the policy gap with the Fed.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a familiar part of our lives, but we are only just beginning to realise the risks associated with it. With regulation unable to keep pace, AI governance is now a major issue.

The US labour market will take centre stage, with the jobs report set to test whether recent signs of resilience in activity can coexist with still-firm inflation.

For decades, European defence budgets were treated as a discretionary line item, a peace dividend to be spent elsewhere. Russia's invasion of Ukraine broke that assumption. The ensuing years featuring a less predictable transatlantic security relationship and the growing importance of cyber, drones and space have only reinforced that break.

Jackson Hole will take centre stage, with Fed Chair Warsh and his global peers expected to shed light on the policy outlook amid elevated long-end yields and lingering trade and inflation uncertainty. Investor focus will then turn to US PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge so far, alongside income and spending data for further evidence on the resilience of the US consumer.

Global growth will take centre stage, with Friday’s flash PMIs providing a timely read on momentum across the US, Eurozone and UK, complemented by China’s July activity data.