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Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the global economy showed surprising resilience in early 2025, and inflation continued to normalise.

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the Republican Party's control of both houses of Congress, has resulted in a new political landscape in the United States. What key decisions must the new administration make? What impact will these decisions have on the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and investors?

Between 2005 and 2017, when most Eurozone economies saw declines in both the weight of their industries and their export market shares, Germany stood out for its powerful industry, strong market shares... and its fiscal rigor. Over this period, German GDP grew 10% faster than the rest of the zone. Germany and its social co-management model (Mitbestimmung) have long been held up as the example.

Donald Trump heads back to the White House as the 47th President, with an increased likelihood of a Republican sweep. Yesterday (6 November), market reactions were strong, with US stocks hitting all-time highs, 10Y bond yields jumping to 4.5%, and the dollar surging against most currencies.

With the partisan divide hardening in the run-up to November 5, the presidential race was revived with the withdrawal of Joe Biden at the end of July. In just a few weeks, Kamala Harris has breathed new energy into the Democratic campaign.

At the start of summer 2024, growth continues, but its pace remains uneven across countries and regions. China is still facing deflationary pressures, the eurozone is making slow progress, while growth in the United States, still close to 2% , seems to be slowing a little. Wherever inflationary pressures have been felt, they have continued to abate over the months, paving the way for a cautious easing of monetary policy.

On November 5, 2024, the American presidential election will be held. It will undoubtedly be the focus of market attention next year.

Towards a more "normal" yield curve