Global activity remained resilient in August, though regional divergences persisted.

Solid growth is giving central banks more room to be hawkish.

We retain a modest tactical duration overweight between the 3-5Y tenors on the Treasury curve.

The Fed will take centre stage, with markets pricing a roughly 90% chance of a rate hike after the August core CPI surprise.

The ECB will take centre stage in Europe, with a 25bp rate hike widely expected, further widening the policy gap with the Fed.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a familiar part of our lives, but we are only just beginning to realise the risks associated with it. With regulation unable to keep pace, AI governance is now a major issue.

The US labour market will take centre stage, with the jobs report set to test whether recent signs of resilience in activity can coexist with still-firm inflation.

For decades, European defence budgets were treated as a discretionary line item, a peace dividend to be spent elsewhere. Russia's invasion of Ukraine broke that assumption. The ensuing years featuring a less predictable transatlantic security relationship and the growing importance of cyber, drones and space have only reinforced that break.