Monthly Coffee Break

The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .

Growth and inflation indicators ended the year on a steadier footing.

We maintain a neutral strategic stance on US duration and rely on tactical implementation. Growth momentum continues to look resilient rather than fragile, and the labour market is showing signs of stabilising at lower levels rather than accelerating deterioration. Survey data supports this view, and high-frequency growth tracking remains firm, reinforcing our assessment that recession risks are not the central case in the near term.

European equities have risen sharply since the last Equity Committee in December, with small caps outperforming large caps.