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We continue to view the labour market as the key determinant for US rates. If employment stabilises, we expect the long end of the curve – particularly maturities beyond ten years – to move higher.

Despite mixed Q3 earnings, European equities closed higher in October, reaching new all-time highs, as macro data showed signs of improvement. In the Eurozone, Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.2% QoQ (vs 0.1% expected and prior) but reflected large discrepancies across countries: Germany and Italy lagged, while France and Spain posted stronger-than-expected growth.

Contrarian voices grew louder in October while Nvidia’s Jensen Huang warned that “China will win the AI race”. Nonetheless, October proved positive for hedge funds, despite brief market volatility tied to US-China trade developments.

Global markets enter November with better visibility than at any point this year – growth stronger than expected, inflation lower than expected and policy still broadly supportive.

The fog is lifting but uncertainty about US data publication persists: We will learn when the delayed economic data will finally be released.

Does it seem as though we, and our investments, are living in uncertain times? With its scheduled cash flows, private debt may provide a predictable and reliable instrument within your overall asset allocation.

Markets extended their winning streak in October, ushering in stocks’ historically strongest quarter — the most wonderful time of the year. Momentum tends to build gradually: a modest October, a livelier November, and a December that often decides how wonderful the season truly is.