Asset Allocation

We acknowledge that several tail risks have receded over the past few weeks, bringing relief to financial markets.

Our asset allocation has turned more cautious as several risks have started to materialise.

It's back-to-school time, and time for investment decisions... Will the US fall into recession?

One and a half years after the US Federal Reserve bank began its tightening course, the US economy continues...

Ever wondered what to do with your portfolio allocation: leave it untouched through market ups and downs, or rebalance? When precisely? What’s the right balance? Our Quant research team has laid out the facts clearly for you in this study.

The markets appear to be having second thoughts on the “terminal rate” of several central banks in developed markets, as their restrictive job is likely not finished yet.

As we reach the halfway point of the year, it seems that recession may be avoided on both sides of the Atlantic, but growth forecasts remain weak...

Financial markets have been resilient in H1 2023, reflecting a better growth/inflation mix than expected by consensus at the start of the year.

In our economic and market scenarios, the next stage points to lower growth and gradually lower inflation in the US by the end of 2024. Consequently, lower interest rates should follow, and we keep a long duration bias in fixed income.

With the upcoming 2023 Turkish presidential election, scheduled to take place on 14 May, we are sharing our views and sentiments on the possible outcomes and their consequences.

Our main scenario incorporates slow growth, both in the US and eurozone, and continues to remain the most likely.

The once-in-a-generation monetary tightening engineered by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) over the past twelve months has produced financial vulnerabilities.

Uncertainties on US and European financials have replaced the better economic growth outlook in investor’s minds. Suddenly, the improvement in activity is now mitigated by financial vulnerabilities and inflation stickiness.

Portfolios managed by Candriam have no exposure to any Credit Suisse security, OTC exposure or stock-lending exposure.

The better outlook on the growth/inflation mix for the year ahead has quickly been incorporated by risky assets, from equities to high yield via credit markets. As the extreme investor pessimism of last October is now in the distant past, we are reducing our overall equity allocation to a more neutral stance.

We have started 2023 with a preference for equities over bonds, as our investment strategy turned more constructive on attractive price levels in October.

We end 2022 with a preference for equities over bonds, as our investment strategy became more constructive on attractive price levels at the start of the fourth quarter.

In October, we turned more constructive based on our analysis of the market configuration. This month, fundamental support provides further reasons to maintain this stance.

If the smile measures how the portfolio value reacts to changes in the underlying markets, then maybe we should measure the smiles – and this is what our investment team has been doing.

Short-term interest rates have been rising around the world over the past year as central banks attempt to fight inflation.

While inflation continues to surprise to the upside, growth dynamics have turned and continue to decelerate. Growth concerns are mainly affecting Europe, as energy prices remain an important inflation driver, while central banks are stepping up their tightening.

Despite this wealth of information – or perhaps because of too much information? – maybe you are still uncertain.  We can help you organize and develop your views, in a 20-minute video. Our economists and strategists will try to clarify the economic and financial risks.

As 2022 opened, we all thought of Covid, war, oil prices, transient inflation... What do you see on the horizon now? Wheat supply crisis? Quantitative tightening? Sustained inflation?

This year’s European summer heatwave and drought has the potential to worsen the current energy crisis, as river water levels have dropped significantly.

As we reach the halfway point in the year, global growth forecasts continue to be revised downwards and headwinds remain significant…