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Since the last committee on March 11th, European markets have fallen sharply, due to Donald Trump’s announcements regarding US tariffs on April 2nd.

According to the Institute for Economics & Peace, there are 56 active conflicts in the world, the greatest number since the end of World War II. Increasingly complex geopolitics and ReArm Europe are keeping investors on our toes, analytically.

“Uncertainty” was probably the most important driver behind the stock market’s behaviour over the past four weeks.

In January, European equities closed the month higher, outperforming the US and narrowing part of the valuation gap between the two sides of the Atlantic. In addition to attractive valuation multiples, the eurozone has benefited from improving macro data (the composite PMI edged into expansionary territory at 50.2 in January and retail sales have risen for five consecutive months) and the ongoing rate-cutting cycle from the European Central Bank (ECB), while the Fed has decided to pause rate cuts.

Since the US presidential elections, US equities have been on an uptrend driven by a certain optimism, as the expectation of tax cuts and deregulation have fuelled the hope of accelerated corporate earnings growth.

European equity markets ended the last month of the year on a positive note. The positive market trend was mainly driven by rate cuts and slowing inflation over the course of 2024.

In November, European equities closed the month up. Excluding the UK, however, European equities fell marginally due to a combination of concerns about US trade policy and earnings warnings from the automotive and consumer goods sectors. Consumer weakness in China and within domestic markets was cited as the cause in both cases. A strong Financials performance supported UK equities (+2.5%).

In October, European equities closed the month lower. European headline inflation was revised down to 1.7% year-on-year in September (from the preliminary 1.8%).