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As we write these lines, the US market is approaching its historical peak, last reached in February 2025, and most asset classes have posted positive returns in local currency since the start of the year.

Global manufacturers are navigating a highly challenging environment marked by tariffs, trade conflicts and new alliances, supply chain disruptions, and rising geopolitical tensions.

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the Republican Party's control of both houses of Congress, has resulted in a new political landscape in the United States. What key decisions must the new administration make? What impact will these decisions have on the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and investors?

Since his return to the White House, Trump has announced a series of country or sectoral tariff increases. If we combine all the measures announced before 2 April (20% on China, 25% on Canada and Mexico with exemption for goods that comply with the USMCA , 25% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles and parts), the average tariff rate on US imports was on course to reach 11% from 2.5% end of 2024.

For the past decade, US stock markets have largely dominated the rest of the world, thanks to strong momentum in the technology sector and a favorable macroeconomic environment. Paradoxically, since the election of Donald Trump, this trend has reversed and the US market seems to have temporarily lost this leadership role.

The global macro environment will likely favour further dollar strength, despite the strong appreciation since the US elections in early November. Under President Trump’s second administration, we may even test the dollar highs seen during Paul Volcker’s Federal Reserve chairmanship in the 1980s.

As we enter 2025, the arrival of a new President in the White House is generating a great deal of uncertainty. Merger arbitrage (M&A) strategies are no exception to the question: What impact can we expect from the change of administration on this asset class ?

Since the US presidential elections, US equities have been on an uptrend driven by a certain optimism, as the expectation of tax cuts and deregulation have fuelled the hope of accelerated corporate earnings growth.