Anton Brender

As recently as the beginning of February, a total invasion still seemed unlikely. Since then, we have chosen to position for a potentially binary outcome, and have increased exposure to gold, the USD, the YEN, and the CHF, as well as to some commodities such as oil, while cutting our exposure to financials, reducing our equity exposure, and adding protection.

With the pandemic, public debt has soared around the world. In the United States, as in Europe, ambitious investment plans will nevertheless be implemented… which will further increase public debt.

At the beginning of the summer, the pandemic is still far from being under control everywhere. However, the determined vaccination policy in the United States and President Biden's transformation plan suggest that the economic rebound in the United States will be marked and the return of growth sustainable.

At the end of 2020, some of the uncertainties that had weighed for many months (Brexit, American elections...) have dissipated. However, the rebound of the epidemic threatens the economic recovery that had begun.

After quickly gaining control of the Covid-19 epidemic, the Chinese economy is about to return to its trend growth trajectory. In the developed countries, however, the explosion of new Covid cases in late autumn will once again curb activity.Will the discovery of vaccines be enough to make a return to normal by the end of 2021 possible? What traces will this unprecedented crisis leave in the United States and Europe?