Latest insights

We have previously examined the equity/bond allocation and asked, ‘Is 40/30/30 the new 60/40?’ Well, yes, we think it is. Our work shows a long-term correlation between equities and fixed income that is frighteningly close to 1.0. This increased correlation fundamentally alters the effectiveness of traditional portfolio construction.

2022 was a landmark year for monetary policy, with Central banks shifting priority from supporting growth to taming inflation.

With the onset of the inflationary cycle and the change in central bank monetary policy, markets have entered a new paradigm, leaving investors uncertain as to the direction that markets will take next, and the timing of the transition into the next phase of the economic cycle.

Hard landing or soft? From Draghi’s ‘’Whatever it takes” to Powell’s “Whatever it costs”, we know the markets are ready for exciting times. CTAs aim to face the next swing, whether it be hard landing or soft.

If the smile measures how the portfolio value reacts to changes in the underlying markets, then maybe we should measure the smiles – and this is what our investment team has been doing.

After several decades of riding a government bonds bull market, investors are now looking for alternative drivers of return. Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies, with their ability to make gains in rising, as well as falling markets, have historically been able to improve risk-adjusted returns when introduced to a balanced portfolio. However, a question that investors can legitimately ask today is how are CTAs impacted by rising interest rates?

Senior Systematic Portfolio Manager