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The global economic cycle is not ending yet – it is reshaping. Following a volatile first quarter and trade escalation at the start of April, May 2025 shows de-escalation amid numerous trade tariff headlines.

The election of Donald Trump, coupled with the Republican Party's control of both houses of Congress, has resulted in a new political landscape in the United States. What key decisions must the new administration make? What impact will these decisions have on the macroeconomic environment, financial markets and investors?

April 2025 marks a turning point in the global economic narrative. In the wake of the United States’ sharp tariff escalation – dubbed “Liberation Day” – investors are confronting the ripple effects of a protectionist revival.

Since his return to the White House, Trump has announced a series of country or sectoral tariff increases. If we combine all the measures announced before 2 April (20% on China, 25% on Canada and Mexico with exemption for goods that comply with the USMCA , 25% on steel and aluminum and 25% on automobiles and parts), the average tariff rate on US imports was on course to reach 11% from 2.5% end of 2024.

Released last September, former ECB President Mario Draghi’s report urged the EU to revive and boost its competitiveness. At the end of January, the European Commission presented the Competitiveness Compass to allow Europe to revive economic growth and secure prosperity.

As economic uncertainties intensify in the United States, European fiscal policies are emerging as a beacon of hope.

For the past decade, US stock markets have largely dominated the rest of the world, thanks to strong momentum in the technology sector and a favorable macroeconomic environment. Paradoxically, since the election of Donald Trump, this trend has reversed and the US market seems to have temporarily lost this leadership role.

We maintain an overweight stance on global equities, adopting a more balanced approach across sectors and regions. Notably, we have a renewed interest in Europe and China, as the catch-up trade in these regions still has potential upside: a range of macroeconomic, geopolitical and technological factors have introduced notable shifts that investors must carefully assess.