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  • Week

Last Week in a Nutshell

  • In France, Marine Le Pen qualified as challenger to incumbent president Emmanuel Macron in the second round of the presidential elections set to take place on April 24th.
  • The European Central Bank kept its policy stance broadly unchanged. Navigating between record-high inflation and concerns over a war-related recession, the central bank is slowly unwinding the extraordinary stimulus.
  • In the US, inflation data is hitting new highs: Consumer prices are potentially peaking at 8.5% YoY, while energy prices pushed the headline producer prices to a 1.4% monthly increase, leaving headline PPI inflation at 11.2% YoY in March.
  • Last week’s soft data came out above expectations: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose to a three-months high while Germany's ZEW survey soured further, but less than expected.

What's Next?

  • Flash PMI’s for key countries are due. The soft data will shed some light on both the dynamic and the heterogeneity between regional economic activity in the current context of elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • In Germany, producer price inflation will be in the spotlight after notching a +25.9% gain in February, the highest on record. Investors will also watch consumer confidence surveys in major European economies.
  • China’s Q1 GDP will be a first hint on how ambitious the country’s yearly goal of 5.5%. Multiple headwinds, including a property downturn, supply chain issues, and COVID-19 outbreaks are challenging the authorities’ agenda.
  • Q1 2022 earnings season will cover bellwether corporates. Earnings and sales growth as well as future guidance will be scrutinized by investors.
  • In France, Marine Le Pen and incumbent president Emmanuel Macron will hold a debate on April 20th, just days before the second round of the presidential elections.

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