Global activity proved resilient into the new year as policy uncertainty around US trade eased from late-2025 peaks and the IMF nudged world growth forecasts modestly higher. Within the euro area, Q4 growth accelerated, but January PMIs were mixed – manufacturing stabilised while services softened, pointing to a slight loss of momentum at the start of 2026.

European equities have remained in positive territory since our last Equity Committee, benefiting from diversification outside the US and improved macro signals. GDP growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2025.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

Emerging market debt has treated investors well lately. Hard-currency sovereigns have benefited from high coupon yields, tighter spreads and a few well-timed recoveries, while corporates have followed a similar script — with high yield doing much of the heavy lifting.

We are moving to a neutral stance on US duration this month after our tactical long. While the macro backdrop remains broadly resilient, the balance of risks across the curve has shifted sufficiently to warrant a recalibration of our positioning.

In the US, the delayed job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 70k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.

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In the US, the job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 65k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.

This week’s focus will be on the Fed decision and the subsequent press conference, where Jerome Powell is likely to face questions on the subpoenas and Lisa Cook’s Supreme Court hearing. Central banks in Canada and Sweden will also set rates.

The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .

Growth and inflation indicators ended the year on a steadier footing.

We maintain a neutral strategic stance on US duration and rely on tactical implementation. Growth momentum continues to look resilient rather than fragile, and the labour market is showing signs of stabilising at lower levels rather than accelerating deterioration. Survey data supports this view, and high-frequency growth tracking remains firm, reinforcing our assessment that recession risks are not the central case in the near term.

European equities have risen sharply since the last Equity Committee in December, with small caps outperforming large caps.

The focus this week will be the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, where US President Trump is scheduled to give a special address and where ECB President Lagarde is also expected to speak.

The focus this week will be on the US CPI report for December and the release of the Fed’s Beige book ahead of the FOMC end-January.

Investor focus at the start of the year will centre on the US December job report, as recent labour market signals have been increasingly noisy.

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Global growth is slow but steady, AI is driving investment cycles, and central banks are backstopping risk. Explore our 2026 outlook: equity conviction, monetary policy shifts, and the evolving role of gold and EM debt in balanced portfolios.

Data releases will be sparse during the holiday season as Christmas and New Year’s Day festivities around the world are expected to cool down financial market activity.

As it has over the past 2 years, credit remains an asset class of choice for global fixed income investors. The combination of enduringly sound fundamentals, powerful technical forces, and generous yields has rendered credit a rare anchor of stability in a world still wrestling with volatility and policy uncertainty.

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While private credit and high yield markets will continue to offer opportunities in 2026, rigorous selection becomes essential for investors.