Europe may be breaking its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, but energy autonomy will not be achieved by changing the energy mix alone. It will require stronger grids, greater industrial capacity and more resilient critical-material supply chains.

September was characterised by resilient global economic activity, persistent inflationary pressures and increasing concerns over monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. In the United States, economic momentum remained robust, supported by AI-related investment and resilient consumption, despite signs of labour market moderation. In Europe, economic indicators continued to improve, with manufacturing and services PMIs signalling greater resilience.

The Fed has delivered a hike where investors just months ago expected cuts. Markets now anticipate further tightening through 2027, yet US equities remain higher this year. Earnings expectations have held up through the reversal in monetary expectations. The upcoming Q3 reporting season will show whether companies can deliver on them.

We retain a modest duration overweight in the two-to-five-year segment after September's sharp sell-off. Higher real yields have made valuations more appealing, but we keep conviction limited. Our strongest argument remains monetary policy: markets discount a terminal Fed rate around 4.75% , leaving room for a less extensive tightening cycle to support shorter maturities.

After a period in which strong earnings helped equities absorb rising interest rates, higher bond yields have begun to weigh more on equity sentiment. The third-quarter reporting season will now test whether companies can sustain market confidence through solid results and credible guidance. Earnings expectations continue to rise, providing an encouraging starting point, while also raising the bar for companies to deliver.

Rates Up, Earnings Next

US services ISM and consumer sentiment will test the resilience of activity as higher energy prices and borrowing costs weigh on households.

US labour markets take centre stage: September payrolls, JOLTS and ADP will test hiring momentum, while ISM manufacturing and consumer confidence will gauge the resilience of activity and spending.