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Coordinated U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began on Saturday 28 February, while Iranian retaliation has spread across the region. Without any clearly stated intentions or objectives on the part of the United States of America, these events give rise to numerous hypotheses and uncertainties for the region in the coming months, as well as risks for investors.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .

Global growth is slow but steady, AI is driving investment cycles, and central banks are backstopping risk. Explore our 2026 outlook: equity conviction, monetary policy shifts, and the evolving role of gold and EM debt in balanced portfolios.

Global markets enter November with better visibility than at any point this year – growth stronger than expected, inflation lower than expected and policy still broadly supportive.

Economic signals remain uneven, data visibility is clouded by the US government shutdown, and inflation is edging higher again.

Since last Sunday (October 5), France has been plunged into a new political crisis — unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just a few hours after forming his government, due to partisan deadlock and his inability to build a stable majority.

The global economy approaches the final stretch of 2025 at an inflection point.