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From January through the end of May, European equities reclaimed leadership. In local currency, the MSCI EMU beat the MSCI World by roughly six to seven percentage points, and the quality of that advance was unmistakably value-tilted: banks and insurers led from the front, with telecom services, utilities and industrials providing consistent breadth.

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An irresistible momentum is shaping global markets, as investors face a paradox of rising risk perception alongside rallying assets. Economic data releases, trade tariffs and geopolitical signals remain noisy – yet financial markets continue to advance.

As we write these lines, the US market is approaching its historical peak, last reached in February 2025, and most asset classes have posted positive returns in local currency since the start of the year.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, the global economy showed surprising resilience in early 2025, and inflation continued to normalise.

The global economy remains in a delicate state of balance. The US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback but uncertainty remains high, especially with the US still imposing significant duties.

Although navigating by the stars can seem brave and adventurous, we would not recommend it on financial markets. Better be equipped with a solid compass !

The global economic cycle is not ending yet – it is reshaping. Following a volatile first quarter and trade escalation at the start of April, May 2025 shows de-escalation amid numerous trade tariff headlines.