Coffee break

The State of the Polarized Union

In the US, the delayed job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 70k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.

In the US, the job report will be in the spotlight. Market consensus is expecting 65k job creations and a stable unemployment rate, at 4.4%.

This week’s focus will be on the Fed decision and the subsequent press conference, where Jerome Powell is likely to face questions on the subpoenas and Lisa Cook’s Supreme Court hearing. Central banks in Canada and Sweden will also set rates.

The focus this week will be the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, where US President Trump is scheduled to give a special address and where ECB President Lagarde is also expected to speak.

The focus this week will be on the US CPI report for December and the release of the Fed’s Beige book ahead of the FOMC end-January.

Investor focus at the start of the year will centre on the US December job report, as recent labour market signals have been increasingly noisy.

Data releases will be sparse during the holiday season as Christmas and New Year’s Day festivities around the world are expected to cool down financial market activity.

Data-dependent investors may be well rewarded heading into Christmas, with a heavy US data slate – including the delayed jobs report and the key inflation prints.

For investors, the focus will be on the Fed’s decision and any accompanying dissents, while other key central bank meetings include those of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada, and the Swiss National Bank.

At the start of the final month of the year, investor focus will be on global PMIs to gain insights into activity, prices and jobs in the manufacturing and services sector globally.

The fog is lifting but uncertainty about US data publication persists: We will learn when the delayed economic data will finally be released.

Markets extended their winning streak in October, ushering in stocks’ historically strongest quarter — the most wonderful time of the year. Momentum tends to build gradually: a modest October, a livelier November, and a December that often decides how wonderful the season truly is.

Markets extended their winning streak in October, ushering in stocks’ historically strongest quarter — the most wonderful time of the year. Momentum tends to build gradually: a modest October, a livelier November, and a December that often decides how wonderful the season truly is.

The upcoming days will bring a flurry of top-down macro and bottom-up micro events, setting up the scene for the final weeks of 2025.

News that US President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the Russian war in Ukraine will be followed closely.

The earnings season for the third quarter of the year will traditionally start with US financial institutions, including JP Morgan Chase

Following the election of Shinjiro Koizumi as new LDP leader, the extraordinary Diet session to elect Japan's new prime minister will be scheduled swiftly.

As a US government shutdown is potentially just days away, focus is turning to the question of whether this will be a “short” or a “long” shutdown.

Manufacturing and services PMIs will offer a first look at September’s global activity. With the Fed easing and China’s economy stabilizing, any uptick could reinforce the reflation narrative and support risk assets.

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its funds rate after having observed a pause since December 2024.

The ECB interest rate decision will be closely watched for how the bank balances inflation nearly at target with sluggish growth in the region.

Markets will be laser-focused on the US job report, representing one of the last major data releases ahead of the September FOMC.

Markets will be digesting the comments made by Central Bankers at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole.

Markets will be digesting the outcome of the US-Russia summit on Ukraine in Alaska and the follow-up meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskiy and European leaders in Washington.