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Donald Trump’s re-election as president of the United States has sparked concerns about his potential impact on key sustainability topics, notably climate action.

Following the US election, what will the bond landscape look like around the world in the near term and the medium term? President-elect Trump should be able to implement much of his political agenda over the next few years. We think four themes stand out: Tariffs, Regulations, Tax Cuts, and Immigration. What we don’t yet know is the timing and the magnitude of these elements.

In the run up to the November 2024 US elections, our special correspondent in the US, Lauren Goodwin, Chief Market Strategist at our parent company New York Life Investments, shares her analysis on the campaigns and how US investors are navigating the environment. Every two weeks. Make sure to visit our US Chronicles !

Donald Trump heads back to the White House as the 47th President, with an increased likelihood of a Republican sweep. Yesterday (6 November), market reactions were strong, with US stocks hitting all-time highs, 10Y bond yields jumping to 4.5%, and the dollar surging against most currencies.

Chinese authorities have begun addressing deflationary pressures through a series of monetary and fiscal measures, signaling their growing urgency to stabilise the economy.

Numerous statistics are being published on the performance of financial markets in the run-up to the US elections. US presidential elections do not occur often enough to generate statistically significant data, but we generally observe an increase in volatility from the summer preceding the election date, with range-bound markets. After the election, the uncertainty usually subsides, and the promises of the future new president may generate an end-of-year rally.

With the partisan divide hardening in the run-up to November 5, the presidential race was revived with the withdrawal of Joe Biden at the end of July. In just a few weeks, Kamala Harris has breathed new energy into the Democratic campaign.

The impact of the 2024 elections on the decarbonization theme is of paramount importance, considering that the year marks a significant electoral period globally with 64 countries and the European Union - representing nearly half of the global population - heading to the polls.