Latest insights

Before the measures recently announced, China was confronted with significant deflationary forces and was struggling to meet its 5% GDP growth target. Youth unemployment rate reached 24%, consumer confidence has been at rock bottom levels for years, household consumption has remained well below pre-pandemic trends and the real estate market has been falling for four years.

We maintain a constructive outlook on equities but proceed cautiously in the short term.

The MSCI World (developed countries index) hit an all-time high in mid-July, following an almost uninterrupted 33% rise since its low point at the end of October 2023. Only a correction of around 5% in April 2024 enabled some reactive investors to jump on the bandwagon if they hadn't done so since the last quarter of last year.

After focusing on the elections in France and the UK, investors’ attention is rapidly shifting towards the United States. The first presidential debate has increased the likelihood of a second Donald Trump presidency, implying a potential risk of higher inflation in 2025.

2024 was already a key election year, with more than half of the world’s population going to the polls. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve his own legislature in response to the European Parliament elections added to the list.

The price of gold has risen by over 17% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the best-performing assets this year. After hovering between US$1,800 and US$2,000 in 2023, the price of gold surged in March and April 2024, rapidly reaching US$2,400.

Markets got over the near-term consolidation, as both bottom-up and top-down elements were helpful: from a micro level, the Q1 earnings season was supportive on both sides of the Atlantic, following a stronger-than-expected global economy at the start of the year.

In our opinion, it is time to add cyclicity to the portfolio to benefit from an improving environment.