Equities

The environmental transition is often presented as a clean-energy story. However, as electrification scales, a different question is becoming more important: can the global economy secure, reuse and manage the resources needed to make the transition possible?

For decades, investors tended to view the world through a consistent lens; developed markets offered stability, while emerging markets offered the potential for rapid growth, albeit with greater volatility and risk. That distinction is becoming less obvious.

Why the environmental transition is fuelling the next boom in energy, industry and resources

European equities have risen since our last Equity Committee in May, driven by fading Middle East geopolitical risks.

The US-Iran framework deal announced on Sunday and the broader de-escalation that it offers reinforces a macro backdrop that should be attractive for emerging markets (EM). We believe that if this agreement succeeds, the potential for lower geopolitical risk, softer oil prices, easing inflation pressures and a weaker USD provide a constructive environment for EM.

The structural shift towards European autonomy is already underway in the technology sector. Having relied on American and Asian capabilities for too long, Europe is now committed to reducing its technological dependence by strengthening its domestic capacities in strategic areas.

European equities have experienced a slight contraction since the last Equity Committee in April, amid several macroeconomic headwinds. The collapse of Middle East ceasefire talks renewed geopolitical concerns and disrupted supply chains.

The environmental transition has entered a new phase. What was once seen as a gradual, policy-led shift is unfolding as a faster, economically driven transformation. Technology, cost dynamics and rising physical risks are converging, turning environmental change into a central force redefining growth, capital allocation and corporate strategy.

Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have triggered renewed energy and supply shocks in Europe, exposing the continent's reliance on external dependencies.

In a recent Explore webinar, Candriam CIO Nicolas Forest, alongside Chief Economist Florence Pisani, Co-Global Head of Equity Management Johan Van der Biest and Head of Emerging Markets Equities Paulo Salazar, shared their views on the impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure, the general feeling of the markets and explored the trends to be aware of across equities.

European equities have rebounded since our last Equity Committee meeting on 10 March, thanks to a significant easing of geopolitical tensions, driven by a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran in early April.

European equities have fallen significantly since our last Equity Committee held on 10 February.

Artificial Intelligence agents are moving beyond assistance and into execution. The emergence of AI agents such as Claude Cowork has intensified a debate among investors: could parts of the SaaS ecosystem risk structural disintermediation?

European equities have remained in positive territory since our last Equity Committee, benefiting from diversification outside the US and improved macro signals. GDP growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2025.

The world of 2030 is already taking shape: AI assistants embedded in daily life, autonomous mobility, software-defined factories, digital twins, and smarter energy systems that optimise demand in real time.

Why Europe’s autonomy agenda is becoming a powerful catalyst for new investment cycles and sector-level opportunities.

Precision oncology is entering a new era—one defined by earlier detection, personalised treatment, and the growing potential for long-term remission or cure.

European equities have risen sharply since the last Equity Committee in December, with small caps outperforming large caps.

Geopolitical Fragmentation | Europe’s Investment Moment | Candriam Discover how Europe’s drive for strategic autonomy is reshaping global investing. Read Candriam’s latest research and explore our European Autonomy Fund.

Despite mixed Q3 earnings, European equities closed higher in October, reaching new all-time highs, as macro data showed signs of improvement. In the Eurozone, Q3 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.2% QoQ (vs 0.1% expected and prior) but reflected large discrepancies across countries: Germany and Italy lagged, while France and Spain posted stronger-than-expected growth.

European equities rose in September, buoyed by broader global gains supported by the Fed’s rate cut.

European equities were slightly higher in August but continue to underperform US equities. European macro data were mixed, with PMIs improving in manufacturing but weakening in services.

Europe’s strategic autonomy is no longer a theory; it’s a trending headline, a policy priority, and an investment theme. But with many players now crowding the space, real differentiation lies not in retelling the story, but in how you act on it. At Candriam, we see Europe’s autonomy shift not as a short-term theme, but as a long-term, multi-sector transformation.

On Sunday, July 27, 2025, the EU and the US successfully concluded a trade agreement, paving the way for strengthened economic relations between the two regions. While initial reports caused some confusion, it now appears that most pharmaceutical products, excluding certain generics, will be subject to a 15% tariff.

After a sustained period of outperformance versus other regions, European equity markets have underperformed in recent weeks. This shift was marked by a notable rotation into US technology stocks during the month of June.