The global economy remains in a delicate state of balance. The US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback but uncertainty remains high, especially with the US still imposing significant duties.

Markets have benefited from the de-escalation of the tariffs narrative but uncertainty levels remain very high.

May and the first two weeks of June saw a good performance from risk assets, while rates assets underperformed.

You want to talk about euro swap spreads versus US swap spreads? We watch that, too. But to be honest, that graph is one of the last things we look at when managing euro fixed income aggregate portfolios. So if you want to see it, you’ll have to read all the rest of this page first.

European equities closed May higher but are no longer outperforming US equities.

Flash PMI data for June will provide an early read on global manufacturing and services, highlighting growth momentum, inflation risks, and potential monetary policy shifts.

In what can only be described as an event-packed May, financial markets navigated a minefield of global macro developments: escalating US–China trade tensions, a surge in Japanese government bond yields, and renewed concern about fiscal sustainability across developed markets.

The Fed’s interest rate decision, economic projections, and press conference will guide market expectations on US monetary policy in H2.