Coffee break

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will hold speeches, giving more insights into their respective guidance into the final meetings of the year.

Early estimates of manufacturing and services business activities for key countries, such as the US, the euro zone, Great Britain, and Japan will reveal whether economies are softening. Sentiment gauges in the euro zone and the US will give clues on the consumer mood just at the start of the holiday season sales.

US inflation will be in the spotlight with the publication of key figures, such as core inflation rate, CPI and PPI.

Markets will continue to digest the slowdown in the US job market, as the unemployment rate continued to creep higher, from 3.4% in April to 3.9%.

Fed’s next rate decision on November 1st will be in the spotlight. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but may be hesitant to indicate if it is done hiking for good after this week’s strong GDP reading.

The meeting of the European Central Bank will be in the spotlight. The broad consensus is calling for a standby, but oil prices and labour market strength keep upside risks to inflation alive.

Inflation data will be in the spotlight with publications from the US, China and the euro zone. The Chinese PPI may confirm the slowing deflationary pressures.

The US start the last quarter of 2023 with a government shutdown. One of the casualties is government data.

Financial markets will continue to digest the remaining round of central bank meetings, including the latest one from the Bank of Japan.

Central banks will take centre stage. Interest rate decisions are on the agenda of the US Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.

The ECB will be in the spotlight and confirm the need for a 10th consecutive hike or pause. Under the weight of the cumulative 425 bps points of hikes since July 2022, the 20-member bloc’s economic activity is slowing down leaving consensus at a crossroad.

Industrial production and balance of trade for key countries will likely put discrepancies in economic growth and international trade in the spotlight.

Markets will continue to digest the “our-job-is-not-finished-yet” messages sent out by central bankers in Jackson Hole

The main event for investors will be the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Central bankers, policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world will discuss “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”.

Final readings of inflation, including PPI and CPI for some key countries, such as the US and China, will be in the spotlight as investors look for clues on central banks’ next moves.

The publication of the US job report will reveal whether the cooling, which started in June, continued. A slowdown in job creation is paramount to the expected soft landing of the economy.

A packed top-down and bottom-up agenda awaits investors this week.

In the Euro area, consumer confidence for the whole region and business confidence for France will give insights on the start of Q3.

Inflation will be in focus with publications in the US, some Euro Area members and in China. In the US, the consensus is expecting a sharp drop in headline CPI towards 3% YoY.

This week’s focus will be on the publication of the US job report as it will shed some light on the ongoing strength of the labour market.

The euro zone and its key member countries will publish preliminary data on inflation for the month of June as the ECB maintains a hawkish tone.

Global flash PMIs will be released helping investors gauge the gap between manufacturing activity and services.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, will meet and decide on their monetary policy.

The preliminary data on the euro zone GDP growth rate and Germany’s industrial production are expected as investors assess the pace and width of the slowdown in activity.

In the US, the debt ceiling negotiations will be the focus, as the US Treasury could run out of cash as early as June 1st. Drawing out the resolution may impact the nation’s credit rating and above all, confidence.