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2024 Revealed : Ten convictions for a blinding future

As December was bringing to an end another challenging year on financial markets, our CIO Nicolas Forest and Candriam investment experts observed the tradition and took some time to reflect on the past events and future potential opportunities. Portfolio managers, economists and analysts put their thoughts on paper and shared ten pieces on the themes which they believe will shape 2024:

  • Monetary policy: are we finally heading towards a more “normal” yield curve?
  • How to make the most of high rates in a Fixed income portfolio?
  • Equities: What about corporate margins and profits?
  • Should we worry about Public deficits in the Eurozone?
  • Where do we stand on financing the Energy transition?
  • Are Real estate markets up for a warmer season?
  • Emerging markets: discover the new rising stars!
  • Is the Healthcare sector still a defensive play?
  • US election year: what economic consequences in case of a Biden-Trump duel?
  • Asset allocation: what portfolio to enter 2024?

 

Want to have an overall view, or a closer look at one of them? Here they are gathered in a single document.

Click here and download our 2024 Outlook Book

2024 Revealed : Ten convictions for a blinding future

  • Can Europe build its way to energy autonomy?

    Europe may be breaking its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, but energy autonomy will not be achieved by changing the energy mix alone. It will require stronger grids, greater industrial capacity and more resilient critical-material supply chains.

  • Dispersion and Trends Drive Opportunities

    September was characterised by resilient global economic activity, persistent inflationary pressures and increasing concerns over monetary tightening and geopolitical risks. In the United States, economic momentum remained robust, supported by AI-related investment and resilient consumption, despite signs of labour market moderation. In Europe, economic indicators continued to improve, with manufacturing and services PMIs signalling greater resilience.

  • Earnings take centre stage

    The Fed has delivered a hike where investors just months ago expected cuts. Markets now anticipate further tightening through 2027, yet US equities remain higher this year. Earnings expectations have held up through the reversal in monetary expectations. The upcoming Q3 reporting season will show whether companies can deliver on them.

  • Maintaining duration overweight on EUR rates

    We retain a modest duration overweight in the two-to-five-year segment after September's sharp sell-off. Higher real yields have made valuations more appealing, but we keep conviction limited. Our strongest argument remains monetary policy: markets discount a terminal Fed rate around 4.75% , leaving room for a less extensive tightening cycle to support shorter maturities.

  • The earnings test

    After a period in which strong earnings helped equities absorb rising interest rates, higher bond yields have begun to weigh more on equity sentiment. The third-quarter reporting season will now test whether companies can sustain market confidence through solid results and credible guidance. Earnings expectations continue to rise, providing an encouraging starting point, while also raising the bar for companies to deliver.

  • Identifying Climate Risk in Credit

    When climate indices disagree, is the gap simply noise - or a risk that credit markets price? This paper connects academic research with investment practice to explore climate beta uncertainty in US and European corporate bonds.

  • The AI debt wave

    AI’s infrastructure boom is drawing some of the world’s largest technology companies deeper into debt markets.

  • Effective Leadership: Is your board prepared for the next leadership challenge?

    Leadership transitions can affect strategy execution, organisational stability, investor confidence and long-term value creation. Yet effective leadership governance goes beyond selecting the right CEO today. Boards also need to anticipate the leadership capabilities their company will require for its next strategic phase.
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