Monthly Coffee Break

Global equities fell for a third consecutive month in October and gold rallied against a backdrop of geopolitical risks, an under-pressure earnings season and a rising rates environment.

Central bank tightening monetary measures continue to progressively slow the economic growth rate of most regions around the world.

We acknowledge that several tail risks have receded over the past few weeks, bringing relief to financial markets.

European equity markets continued their decline in October, for the third month in a row, as bond yields rose sharply.

September was another bruising month for investors in US and Euro rates. The US 10Y jumped higher than at any point in the past 16 years.

Economic fundamentals did not dramatically change over the summer.

European equity markets continued to decline in September, after reaching a 2023 high at the end of July.

Our asset allocation has turned more cautious as several risks have started to materialise.

European equity markets have been broadly flat over the past few weeks.

Financial markets took a breather over August.

Against a backdrop of volatile trading, August saw the return of a correlation between risk assets and rates...

One and a half years after the US Federal Reserve bank began its tightening course, the US economy continues...

The markets appear to be having second thoughts on the “terminal rate” of several central banks in developed markets, as their restrictive job is likely not finished yet.

Looking back over the first half of the year, we can say that the bulls gained the upper hand over the bears.

European equity markets had to give away some ground over the past few weeks.

June saw some weak performances in European risky assets and spread products, with European equities, high yield and IG corporates posting negative returns.

In a market animated by contradictory economic data points, NVIDIA’s excellent Q1 earnings were enough to light the fire under an already hot technology sector.

With equities performing the strongest over the month, the picture was rather mixed for fixed income asset classes, with no clear outperformance from any risky asset classes.

European equity markets were unable to continue their uptrend since the beginning of the year over the past four weeks.

Financial markets have been resilient in H1 2023, reflecting a better growth/inflation mix than expected by consensus at the start of the year.

European equity markets continued their uptrend over the past four weeks on the back of positive economic surprises and a sharp fall in headline inflation as base effects in energy started to drag. The positive market trend was clearly driven by large caps and defensive growth sectors.

April saw positive performances for risky markets, with equities and convertible bonds outperforming, followed by high yield.

The market narrative remains very cautious and divided as to the path to follow over the next few quarters.

In our economic and market scenarios, the next stage points to lower growth and gradually lower inflation in the US by the end of 2024. Consequently, lower interest rates should follow, and we keep a long duration bias in fixed income.

March was a challenging and volatile month, with investment sentiment going through a whole variety of shades in a single month.