June was marked by resilient but narrower global growth, still-elevated price pressures and a renewed focus on energy risk. Global PMIs remained consistent with expansion, but supply-chain tensions and geopolitical uncertainty persisted after the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The global cycle is still catching its breath. World PMI edged up only marginally in June, still consistent with instant growth close to 2.5% in Q2.

We move US nominal duration back to neutral after the front-end overweight implemented last month. The main reason is the first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh and the market reaction that followed.

Since the last equity committee in June, European equities have continued to advance, surpassing historic levels at the end of June, following the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran.

US CPI/PPI, retail sales and industrial production will provide a fresh check on inflation, consumption and growth.

The shift from a “soft” to a “hard” world is a durable regime change, driven by geopolitical rivalry, AI competition and structural resource scarcity.

Europe strengthens healthcare sovereignty through supply chain resilience, policy reform and innovation, creating new investment opportunities.

The environmental transition is no longer a distant policy ambition. It is becoming a structural economic force — reshaping energy systems, industrial value chains and resource infrastructure. As clean technologies mature and environmental pressures intensify, investors can look beyond short-term policy cycles to a multi-decade capex opportunity spanning electrification, circularity and water security.