All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve Bank meeting. A rate cut is as good as done and the Fed can surprise with a dovish stance but it cannot surprise with a hawkish one.
The next US job report is the key set of data that will determine the rate path in the near term, starting with the size of the September Fed funds cut.
In the US, several data points such as retail sales, consumer sentiment and inflation data will provide further insight into the US economy’s resilience.
The earnings season continues, featuring reports from Zalando, Walt Disney, and Super Micro Computer, as the market digests the weaker-than-expected labour market.
US president Joe Biden will address the US nation as he is not seeking reelection and is officially endorsing VP Kamala Harris. While it will carry weight with delegates at the Democratic convention, it is not binding.
In the UK, the King's Speech will introduce legislation for independent fiscal forecasts, reinforcing the Labour party's commitment to fiscal discipline, which should whet investors’ appetite.
The Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee, where Donald Trump is set to announce his vice-presidential pick.
In addition to the start of the Q2 earnings season, the US consumer will remain in the spotlight with publications on the CPI and preliminary sentiment survey results.
With jobless claims trending up, investors will carefully examine the US job report.
The euro zone inflation, consumers and global activity will remain in the spotlight with the release of the preliminary Euro Area CPI, Euro Area retail sales and final global PMI.
General elections in the UK and the 2nd round of legislative elections in France will take place.
The Chinese Communist Party's central committee will meet for its 3rd plenum.
The focus will be on inflation as preliminary readings from a handful of EU members, final readings from Canada, Japan’s CPI and the US PCE are due.
Mortgage applications, new home sales and house price index in the US will give us the pulse of the real estate market.
The Bank of Japan’s Summary of Opinions will shed some light on the latest central bank policy meeting and its commitment to trim back JGB purchases.
On the political front, key events include the first US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, an EU leaders summit and the first round of the general election in France.
In the euro zone, the bump in inflation data will not derail the ECB’s plan to cut this week, though it reduces the likelihood of an immediate follow-on cut in July.
In the US, the FOMC minutes will be released, cementing the near-term monetary policy inclination of the Fed and Nvidia will report earnings for its fiscal first quarter of 2024.
Several developing countries’ central banks are meeting, including Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey. All face the dilemma of a strong US dollar in their need for being accommodative.
The Bank of England is meeting and data on a myriad of topics will be published providing insight into the domestic GDP growth, trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production.
The US Federal reserve bank is meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference which should emphasise that the progress on inflation has slowed in the first quarter.
The monthly US job report will be the arbiter on the strength of the labour market, in particular following the recent drop in employment in business surveys.
Preliminary inflation figures for April are due in the euro zone and some of its members, including France, Spain, Germany, and Italy. Preliminary GDP growth estimates of the past quarter will also be in the spotlight.
Final numbers on industrial production and retail sales from developed countries will help investors gauge consumer spending and provide insight into the state of the economic cycle.
With the Global flash PMIs out, focus will shift to major economies' growth momentum. European readings, especially Germany's, are closely watched after the lagging performance among euro zone peers last year.
Preliminary number of US building permits, existing home sales, and mortgage applications will be published, shedding some light on the strength of the real estate market.
Final inflation readings for March, PPI and CPI in Europe, Canada and Japan will complete a picture of price trends while the US, UK and China’s retail sales will likely confirm a further expansion.
Investors will focus on central banks’ reaction function: the European Central Bank meets, likely further cementing expectations for a rate cut at the next meeting on 6 June.
Investors will focus on preliminary inflation data for March in the euro zone. Ongoing disinflation and positive surprises on economic growth, a goldilocks environment may emerge.
In the US, final numbers on GDP growth, jobless claims, core PCE prices, home sales and sentiment will contribute to giving a fuller picture of the Goldilocks environment.
Consumer and business confidence surveys are due in the Euro Area, and fresh inflation numbers for France, Spain and Italy will give early insights into price trends in March.
Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's decision and communication regarding potential rate cuts, particularly in light of last week's high inflation data.
Also the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will hold meetings. While not much is expected from the UK, the BoJ is at the crossroads with some hawkish comments from BoJ officials and inflation and Yield Curve Control data.
