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The AI Gold rush: Boom, bubble or just the beginning?

AI is reshaping industries at record speed, but is this boom a bubble – or the start of a lasting transformation?

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has moved from buzzword to backbone of markets. Innovation is accelerating, capital spending is surging, and investors worldwide are paying attention. The excitement has echoes of a modern-day gold rush – but beneath the hype lie real, long-term shifts in how companies create value and compete.

Last year, we were strongly optimistic about the AI opportunity. After another year of remarkable performance, we revisited our view. Our conclusion? We continue to see powerful reasons to stay constructive — but several risks are becoming increasingly important to monitor.

The case for the boom

AI adoption is only just getting started. It is already automating tasks, enhancing customer experience and enabling new business models, yet as of as of mid-2025, only around four in ten U.S. companies say they use AI in their day-to-day business.[1]. The potential for wider deployment across sectors remains significant.

Investment trends underline this. The big global cloud and technology platforms, such as Alphabet, Amazon and Meta continue to pour capital into chips, datacentres and cloud infrastructure, while governments step up spending to stay relevant. This looks less like a passing fad and more like a long-term strategic race.

For companies, the gap between early adopters and laggards is widening. Firms that embed AI into their processes are seeing productivity gains, better client engagement and an edge in attracting talent. Those without a clear AI roadmap risk ceding market share as the technology scales.

Crucially, AI is a recurring, not a one-off, revenue opportunity. Every query, model update and agent action consumes compute, supporting durable demand for infrastructure and cloud services. Even after strong share-price gains, valuations still look more reasonable than during the dot-com bubble, and company balance sheets are generally healthier

  • Magnificent 7: Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Tesla​
  • Technology bubble leaders: Microsoft, Cisco Systems, Intel, Oracle, IBM, Lucent, Nortel Networks​
  • Japan financial bubble: Nippon Telegraph and Telephone, Industrial Bank of Japan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Fuji Bank, Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank, Sakura Bank​
  • Nifty 50: IBM, Eastman Kodak, Sears Roebuck, General Electric, Xerox, 3M, Proctor & Gamble

A transformative boom — with manageable risks

We continue to believe the AI revolution is real and structural. The technology is still in the early phase of adoption, investment remains robust, and the economic potential is immense. The whole AI ecosystem now extends far beyond Nvidia, and a broader range of tech companies are positioned to benefit from this transformation.

But the path forward will not be linear. Power constraints, ecosystem fragility, and the financing required for large-scale infrastructure buildouts all deserve close attention.

At this stage, however, we see AI not as a speculative bubble, but as a long-term opportunity — one that still has significant room to grow.

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