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Coffee Break

Coffee Break - All eyes on Nvidia

In the US, the FOMC minutes will be released, cementing the near-term monetary policy inclination of the Fed and Nvidia will report earnings for its fiscal first quarter of 2024. Several developing countries’ central banks are meeting, including Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and Turkey. All face the dilemma of a strong US dollar in their need for being accommodative.
Coffee Break

Coffee Break - Listen to the Fed Chair

The US Federal reserve bank is meeting and Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference which should emphasise that the progress on inflation has slowed in the first quarter. The monthly US job report will be the arbiter on the strength of the labour market, in particular following the recent drop in employment in business surveys. Preliminary inflation figures for April are due in the euro zone and some of its members, including France, Spain, Germany, and Italy. Preliminary GDP growth estimates of the past quarter will also be in the spotlight. Final numbers on industrial production and retail sales from developed countries will help investors gauge consumer spending and provide insight into the state of the economic cycle.
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Coffee Break - Growth momentum in focus

With the Global flash PMIs out, focus will shift to major economies' growth momentum. European readings, especially Germany's, are closely watched after the lagging performance among euro zone peers last year.
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Coffee Break - ECB declared independence from the Fed

Preliminary number of US building permits, existing home sales, and mortgage applications will be published, shedding some light on the strength of the real estate market. Final inflation readings for March, PPI and CPI in Europe, Canada and Japan will complete a picture of price trends while the US, UK and China’s retail sales will likely confirm a further expansion.
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Coffee Break - And now for US inflation data

Investors will focus on central banks’ reaction function: the European Central Bank meets, likely further cementing expectations for a rate cut at the next meeting on 6 June.
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Coffee Break - The US job market

Investors will focus on preliminary inflation data for March in the euro zone. Ongoing disinflation and positive surprises on economic growth, a goldilocks environment may emerge.
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Coffee Break - Central banks listen to the data tune

In the US, final numbers on GDP growth, jobless claims, core PCE prices, home sales and sentiment will contribute to giving a fuller picture of the Goldilocks environment. Consumer and business confidence surveys are due in the Euro Area, and fresh inflation numbers for France, Spain and Italy will give early insights into price trends in March.
Coffee Break

Coffee Break - All eyes on the Fed

Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve's decision and communication regarding potential rate cuts, particularly in light of last week's high inflation data. Also the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England will hold meetings. While not much is expected from the UK, the BoJ is at the crossroads with some hawkish comments from BoJ officials and inflation and Yield Curve Control data.
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Coffee Break - Super Thursday for the ECB?

Central banks will be in the spotlight as the ECB and the Bank of Canada are expected to keep rates unchanged while Jerome Powell’s testimonies to Congress and the US Fed’s Beige Book will offer a snapshot of economic developments.
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Coffee Break - Inflation still cooling

ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and preliminary February data on the euro zone inflation will help investors weigh the odds of the ECB cutting rates prior to the Fed.
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Coffee Break - Enter the Dragon

Large parts of Asia will celebrate the Lunar New Year of the Dragon. In a timely manner, Chinese policymakers rolled out policy easing to defend markets and growth.
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Coffee Break - The busiest week of the year

Over the next 5 trading days, markets will work through the busiest week of the earnings season, as 108 companies representing 38.3% of the S&P 500’s market cap will report results, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, ExxonMobil, Mastercard, and Merck.
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Coffee Break

The New Hampshire primary follows the Republican caucuses in Iowa, where former President Donald Trump won decisively. Other candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, are eager to showcase the ongoing strength of their campaigns.
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Coffee Break

The Iowa caucuses, which have served as the lead-off voting process in presidential elections since the 1970s, marks the kick off of the US election year.
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Coffee Break

On the data front in the US, December headline CPI is expected to marginally pick up while core inflation should confirm its downtrend. Barring an unexpected shock, we expect inflation at both sides of the Atlantic to end 2024 in shouting distance of central bank targets.
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Coffee Break

2024 should bring better visibility for investors as the inflation/interest rate shock fades away and central banks will likely use the room for manoeuvre to reduce rates.
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Coffee Break

The main focus will be on several central banks gathering for their final meeting of the year, notably the Fed, the ECB, the SNB and the BoE. The press conferences should help investors to schedule the start of the monetary easing cycle in 2024.
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Coffee Break

The US job report will be in the spotlight. The US labour market is gradually cooling as the unemployment rate is creeping up.
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Coffee Break

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will hold speeches, giving more insights into their respective guidance into the final meetings of the year.
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Coffee Break

Early estimates of manufacturing and services business activities for key countries, such as the US, the euro zone, Great Britain, and Japan will reveal whether economies are softening. Sentiment gauges in the euro zone and the US will give clues on the consumer mood just at the start of the holiday season sales.
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Coffee Break

US inflation will be in the spotlight with the publication of key figures, such as core inflation rate, CPI and PPI.
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Coffee Break

Markets will continue to digest the slowdown in the US job market, as the unemployment rate continued to creep higher, from 3.4% in April to 3.9%.
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Coffee Break

Fed’s next rate decision on November 1st will be in the spotlight. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but may be hesitant to indicate if it is done hiking for good after this week’s strong GDP reading.

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