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Physical climate risk: looking local, thinking systemic

Climate risks get physical: mounting economic costs.

  • A global temperature shock can leave a durable economic scar

    –12%

    World GDP per capita six years after a +1°C global temperature shock.

    Source: Adrien Bilal and Diego R. Känzig, The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature, NBER Working Paper 32450, November 2024.

  • Severe warming raises the cost of delay

    40%

    Estimated GDP loss by 2100 at 4°C warming.

    Source: Neal, T., Newell, B. R., & Pitman, A. (2025). Reconsidering the macroeconomic damage of severe warming. Environmental Research Letters, 20(4), 044029.

Identifying geographical exposure is only a first step: it does not, by itself, establish financial materiality.

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