Coffee break

Global flash PMI’s for key countries will be released as we keep monitoring the growing gap between manufacturing and services activity.

The euro zone will release estimates of its GDP growth rate, final CPI, employment change and balance of trade.

In the US, the main datapoint will be the CPI release, followed by PPI and the University of Michigan's survey series investigating consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and current conditions.

The focus will be on the Fed and the ECB meetings. Recent data have led markets to pencil in +25bps on both sides of the Atlantic. Focus will be on the presser regarding the guidance on the upcoming path.

First estimates of GDP growth rates for the euro zone and the US will help investors assess the width and length of the central banks’ landing strip as higher borrowing costs bring us closer to a slower activity.

Global PMI estimates are due as investors gauge at which speed higher borrowing costs are catching up with services and manufacturing activity.

With job opening easing, data on inflation will enhance the picture on the growth outlook as investors assess the odds of a recession and the upcoming monetary policy path. The FOMC minutes are also due.

The US job report will shed some light on the strength of the labour market. The market’s resilience is underpinning the economy.

While financial vulnerability is the main focus for investors, inflation data releases in the US, the euro zone and Japan will be carefully watched.

The US Federal Reserve bank will hold its FOMC meeting followed by a press conference. Investors are eager to find out how the stress on US banks and its potential filtering through the real economy will impact its policy.

The ECB will publish its new set of economic forecasts, likely raising rates by 50bp and holding the usual subsequent press conference. Investors will look for insights on the monetary policy path beyond March.

In the US, Fed chair Jerome Powell will testify on the US central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.

Along with the monthly job report, markets will continue to digest stronger than initially reported inflation data and watch for US consumer confidence indicators.

Friday will mark the one-year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.

The US CPI report, retail sales, industrial production data and the mortgage index will be among the key highlights, as the US Federal Reserve is engineering a landing of the economy.

The UK will publish a series of estimated data on its GDP, and final ones on its trade balance, manufacturing production, investment, and construction 3 years after the UK’s departure from the EU.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are meeting for policy decisions. The focus will increasingly turn to the pace of the upcoming hikes.

The Chinese New Year celebration starts. The event is a highlight in the domestic economy, with mass travels and a consumption boost, as the Covid-19 restrictions have been lifted.

US and China will release their estimate of the Q4 GDP growth rate while key countries will release PPI and CPI figures.

Both the US CPI and the real estate market index will help assess the next US Federal Reserve Bank’s move. While there is a growing strain on home affordability keeping prospective homebuyers out of the market, consumer price inflation has yet to converge towards the Fed’s expectations.

OPEC+ decided to leave its output policy unchanged. Oil production targets will remain the same as oil markets were still assessing the impact of the Chinese demand. Meanwhile G7 nations and Australia agreed to a $60/Bbbl price cap on Russian oil. Russia may cut its oil production in response, President Vladimir Putin said.

OPEC+ decided to leave its output policy unchanged. Oil production targets will remain the same as oil markets were still assessing the impact of the Chinese demand. Meanwhile G7 nations and Australia agreed to a $60/Bbbl price cap on Russian oil. Russia may cut its oil production in response, President Vladimir Putin said.

All eyes will be on the OPEC+ output decisions and the EU's sanctions on Russian oil amidst an uncertain outlook for demand. Fluctuations in energy prices remain an important driver of consumer inflation.

As we enter the final month of the year, a rich combination of data stemming from the US labour-market, euro zone inflation and key flash GDP growth rate is expected. The data should contribute to investors’ assessment of the global economy.

Activity and sentiment-related data will be in the spotlight with the release of key countries’ flash PMI for the manufacturing and services activities as well as the EU consumer sentiment indicator.