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The Law of the Strongest

Asset Allocation, Nadège Dufossé, Macro
As we write these lines, the US market is approaching its historical peak, last reached in February 2025, and most asset classes have posted positive returns in local currency since the start of the year.
  • Research Paper, Fixed Income, Bob Maes, Philippe Dehoux

    Euro Swap Spreads : Unpacking Asset Classes

    You want to talk about euro swap spreads versus US swap spreads? We watch that, too. But to be honest, that graph is one of the last things we look at when managing euro fixed income aggregate portfolios. So if you want to see it, you’ll have to read all the rest of this page first.
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Emile Gagna, Macro, Inflation

Powell’s last mile of a long journey

After peaking in the summer of 2022, inflation in the United States has fallen back sharply. Despite the fact that disinflation is now well underway, previous episodes in our series have highlighted the fact that the US economy has not yet returned to the softness of 2 % inflation...
Macro, Emile Gagna, Inflation

The heatmap, a summary of inflationary pressures: illustration for the United States

In the United States, the disinflation process is clearly underway, as the heatmap below illustrates: the "supply chain tensions " and " freight costs " components have turned green since the second half of 2022, even if the recent tensions in the Red Sea are starting to show! In the course of 2023, commodity and producer prices followed suit.
Macro, Inflation, Emile Gagna

Euro zone: labour market still tight

As in the United States, the labour market is tight in the eurozone. However, the nature of the tensions is quite different.
Macro, Inflation, Emile Gagna

United States: job market still tight

Wage trends, reflecting tensions on the labour market, play an important role in the formation of prices, particularly for services.
Macro, Inflation, Emile Gagna

At the heart of inflation

On both sides of the Atlantic, inflation was undoubtedly an important theme throughout 2023.

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