Coffee break

The US start the last quarter of 2023 with a government shutdown. One of the casualties is government data.

Financial markets will continue to digest the remaining round of central bank meetings, including the latest one from the Bank of Japan.

Central banks will take centre stage. Interest rate decisions are on the agenda of the US Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.

The ECB will be in the spotlight and confirm the need for a 10th consecutive hike or pause. Under the weight of the cumulative 425 bps points of hikes since July 2022, the 20-member bloc’s economic activity is slowing down leaving consensus at a crossroad.

Industrial production and balance of trade for key countries will likely put discrepancies in economic growth and international trade in the spotlight.

Markets will continue to digest the “our-job-is-not-finished-yet” messages sent out by central bankers in Jackson Hole

The main event for investors will be the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Central bankers, policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world will discuss “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”.

Final readings of inflation, including PPI and CPI for some key countries, such as the US and China, will be in the spotlight as investors look for clues on central banks’ next moves.

The publication of the US job report will reveal whether the cooling, which started in June, continued. A slowdown in job creation is paramount to the expected soft landing of the economy.

A packed top-down and bottom-up agenda awaits investors this week.

In the Euro area, consumer confidence for the whole region and business confidence for France will give insights on the start of Q3.

Inflation will be in focus with publications in the US, some Euro Area members and in China. In the US, the consensus is expecting a sharp drop in headline CPI towards 3% YoY.

This week’s focus will be on the publication of the US job report as it will shed some light on the ongoing strength of the labour market.

The euro zone and its key member countries will publish preliminary data on inflation for the month of June as the ECB maintains a hawkish tone.

Global flash PMIs will be released helping investors gauge the gap between manufacturing activity and services.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, will meet and decide on their monetary policy.

The preliminary data on the euro zone GDP growth rate and Germany’s industrial production are expected as investors assess the pace and width of the slowdown in activity.

In the US, the debt ceiling negotiations will be the focus, as the US Treasury could run out of cash as early as June 1st. Drawing out the resolution may impact the nation’s credit rating and above all, confidence.

Global flash PMI’s for key countries will be released as we keep monitoring the growing gap between manufacturing and services activity.

The euro zone will release estimates of its GDP growth rate, final CPI, employment change and balance of trade.

In the US, the main datapoint will be the CPI release, followed by PPI and the University of Michigan's survey series investigating consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and current conditions.

The focus will be on the Fed and the ECB meetings. Recent data have led markets to pencil in +25bps on both sides of the Atlantic. Focus will be on the presser regarding the guidance on the upcoming path.

First estimates of GDP growth rates for the euro zone and the US will help investors assess the width and length of the central banks’ landing strip as higher borrowing costs bring us closer to a slower activity.

Global PMI estimates are due as investors gauge at which speed higher borrowing costs are catching up with services and manufacturing activity.

With job opening easing, data on inflation will enhance the picture on the growth outlook as investors assess the odds of a recession and the upcoming monetary policy path. The FOMC minutes are also due.