Back to fundamentals

In an environment marked by shifting correlations, macro uncertainty and episodic volatility, traditional portfolio constructions are facing increasing limitations. The diversification benefits of equities and bonds have become less reliable, prompting investors to seek new sources of return.

Since the end of February, global credit markets have been driven by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict and rising tensions across the Middle East. While geopolitical risks are not new, the intensity and speed of this episode took markets by surprise.

Since late February, global markets have been shaped by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, triggering a sharp increase in oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.

The main focus remains the ongoing situation in the Middle East, and any signs of an agreement.

The war in Iran and signs of a diplomatic solution will remain investors top focus.

If you ask a fixed income investor to describe the credit cycle, most will readily cite its four familiar phases: Repair, Recovery, Expansion and Downturn. Knowing the terminology is straightforward. The more relevant question is: why does it matter for portfolio outcomes?

Investors will look forward to the outcome of the ongoing peace negotiations.

As the war in Iran has entered its fourth week, investor attention will remain firmly on the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global energy flows.

Global macro conditions remained broadly constructive in February, although the backdrop was increasingly shaped by policy uncertainty and a more uneven regional growth mix.

Market dynamics continue to be dominated by geopolitical developments and the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East, primarily via its impact on oil prices.

Financial markets have entered a phase where geopolitics, commodities and monetary policy are interacting more directly than at any point in recent years.

European equities have fallen significantly since our last Equity Committee held on 10 February.

As the war in the Middle East enters its third week, investor attention will remain firmly on the Strait of Hormuz and its implications for global energy flows.

The war in the Middle East will dominate investor attention, as energy price dynamics will shape the outlook for inflation, growth and policy responses.

Explore Candriam’s disciplined approach to credit investing. Learn how issuer research, ESG integration and risk visibility help navigate volatility and construct resilient fixed income portfolios.

If brand value is image, reputation, and a track record of quality, the higher the price of the product, the more important that image is for pricing and profit. And the more susceptible to negative news which might affect that image.

Why are we engaging with companies on their supply chains? Their supply chains have unique and high-risk elements. These come into focus was we look at our larger engagement campaign on supply chains generally.

Artificial Intelligence agents are moving beyond assistance and into execution. The emergence of AI agents such as Claude Cowork has intensified a debate among investors: could parts of the SaaS ecosystem risk structural disintermediation?

The State of the Polarized Union

In a world where investors are constantly looking for more income opportunities and stability, subordinated bonds issued by banks and insurance companies constitute an interesting alternative.

Global activity proved resilient into the new year as policy uncertainty around US trade eased from late-2025 peaks and the IMF nudged world growth forecasts modestly higher. Within the euro area, Q4 growth accelerated, but January PMIs were mixed – manufacturing stabilised while services softened, pointing to a slight loss of momentum at the start of 2026.

European equities have remained in positive territory since our last Equity Committee, benefiting from diversification outside the US and improved macro signals. GDP growth accelerated in the final quarter of 2025.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

Emerging market debt has treated investors well lately. Hard-currency sovereigns have benefited from high coupon yields, tighter spreads and a few well-timed recoveries, while corporates have followed a similar script — with high yield doing much of the heavy lifting.