Latest insights

We continue to view the labour market as the key determinant for US rates. If employment stabilises, we expect the long end of the curve – particularly maturities beyond ten years – to move higher.

Global credit markets have entered the final quarter of 2025 in remarkably good shape. Corporate fundamentals remain robust: earnings across sectors have generally surprised to the upside, leverage is low, and balance sheets are strong, in contrast to sovereign balance sheets, where leverage remains elevated.

The global high yield asset class offers a compelling blend of income and cushion, making it an attractive allocation for investors navigating a complex landscape.

The US economy has entered unknown territory in more ways than one.

Candriam has long been recognised for its leadership in ESG, but our reputation is equally rooted in deep credit expertise — analysing not just issuers, but the entire architecture of financial markets. This perspective is particularly critical in complex areas such as bank capital, where instruments like CoCos play a decisive role.

The global rates landscape is entering a decisive new phase as the long-standing flatness of yield curves gives way to steepness that has not been seen since 2011. The term premium, the additional interest by bondholders investing in longer-dated bonds versus short-term bonds, is back after an absence of many years.

On rates markets, August and the first week of September were marked by a noticeable de-correlation on both sides of the Atlantic. While Euro rates moved sideways, Treasury yields declined significantly, especially at the short end of the curve. This shift and steepening of the curve reflects a weakening labour market, accelerating Fed rate cut expectations.

Yields remain elevated across both U.S. and European markets, offering attractive carry for investors in both Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY).