Asset Allocation

Asset Allocation, Monthly Coffee Break

Election uncertainties overshadow improving fundamentals

2024 was already a key election year, with more than half of the world’s population going to the polls. French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve his own legislature in response to the European Parliament elections added to the list.
Asset Allocation, Nadège Dufossé

Towards a new gold rush?

The price of gold has risen by over 17% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the best-performing assets this year. After hovering between US$1,800 and US$2,000 in 2023, the price of gold surged in March and April 2024, rapidly reaching US$2,400.
Asset Allocation

Broadening

Markets got over the near-term consolidation, as both bottom-up and top-down elements were helpful: from a micro level, the Q1 earnings season was supportive on both sides of the Atlantic, following a stronger-than-expected global economy at the start of the year.
Asset Allocation

Green shoots this Spring

In our opinion, it is time to add cyclicity to the portfolio to benefit from an improving environment.
Asset Allocation, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Nicolas Forest, Nadège Dufossé, Emile Gagna

Update on Middle East Tensions

On April 13, Iran decided to strike Israel with 300 drones and missiles following an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Regional escalation and oil price are at risk. This tail risk cannot be ignored. We are closely monitoring the unfolding situation.
Asset Allocation, Equities, Nadège Dufossé, Thibaut Dorlet

Japan : Make or break

Japanese equities have enjoyed a positive run since the start of the year (+20.8% performance to 27 Mar 2024 ), with the Nikkei recently hitting all-time highs, surpassing the peak of the 1989 bubble .
Asset Allocation

March-ing on

The transatlantic debate on central banks’ monetary policy has evolved to being just a question of timing and magnitude as the odds remain undoubtedly in favour of a soft landing.
Asset Allocation, Nadège Dufossé

Anatomy of a US Bull market

The US market rally since October is exceptional compared to historical observations. Only once in the last 50 years, in 1989, has the S&P 500 Index risen in 15 of the last 17 weeks.
Asset Allocation

Patience

The global outlook for 2024 is complex, marked by the dual forces of economic resilience and evolving challenges. In the United States, robust growth throughout 2023, culminating in a 3.3% annualised expansion rate in Q4, sets a compelling precedent.
Research Paper, Johann Mauchand, Alternative Investments, Asset Allocation

Alternative strategies: Is 40/30/30 the new 60/40?

2022 was a landmark year for monetary policy, with Central banks shifting priority from supporting growth to taming inflation.
Asset Allocation, Nadège Dufossé

2024 seeks direction

Following the strong rebound in financial markets in November and December of 2023, the assets most closely correlated with interest rates have partially retraced their exceptional end-of-year performance.
Asset Allocation

Dry January

As financial assets performed particularly well in the final part of last year, our portfolios are now positioned to weather a consolidation phase.
Asset Allocation

Rising uncertainty

Our asset allocation has turned more cautious as several risks have started to materialise.
Nadège Dufossé, Florence Pisani, Asset Allocation, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Outlook 2023

Candriam’s Outlook 2023

It's back-to-school time, and time for investment decisions... Will the US fall into recession?
Asset Allocation

The landing has started

One and a half years after the US Federal Reserve bank began its tightening course, the US economy continues...
Research Paper, Asset Allocation, Olivier Clapt

Asset allocation: Agility tips

Ever wondered what to do with your portfolio allocation: leave it untouched through market ups and downs, or rebalance? When precisely? What’s the right balance? Our Quant research team has laid out the facts clearly for you in this study.
Asset Allocation

How tight is too tight?

The markets appear to be having second thoughts on the “terminal rate” of several central banks in developed markets, as their restrictive job is likely not finished yet.
Nadège Dufossé, Thibaut Dorlet, Thibaud Marie-Regnault, Asset Allocation, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Outlook 2023

Candriam’s Mid-Year Outlook

As we reach the halfway point of the year, it seems that recession may be avoided on both sides of the Atlantic, but growth forecasts remain weak...
Asset Allocation

Playing Defence

Financial markets have been resilient in H1 2023, reflecting a better growth/inflation mix than expected by consensus at the start of the year.
Asset Allocation

Take me to the next stage

In our economic and market scenarios, the next stage points to lower growth and gradually lower inflation in the US by the end of 2024. Consequently, lower interest rates should follow, and we keep a long duration bias in fixed income.
Nicolas Forest, Equities, Fixed Income, Macro, Asset Allocation

Which way will Turkey turn?

With the upcoming 2023 Turkish presidential election, scheduled to take place on 14 May, we are sharing our views and sentiments on the possible outcomes and their consequences.
Asset Allocation

Gauging local US banking fallout

The once-in-a-generation monetary tightening engineered by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) over the past twelve months has produced financial vulnerabilities.
Asset Allocation

Financial stability and price stability

Uncertainties on US and European financials have replaced the better economic growth outlook in investor’s minds. Suddenly, the improvement in activity is now mitigated by financial vulnerabilities and inflation stickiness.

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