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Ahead of the Curve - An Investment Playbook for 2025

Outlook 2025
Throughout the month of December, we invite you to join us in analysing the main issues and perspectives on ten key questions that will impact investing in 2025: European and transatlantic monetary policies, the breakdown of the German economic model, the slowdown in European real estate, artificial intelligence, the banking sector... there will be no lack of challenges and opportunities, it's up to us to seize them together!
  • Charudatta Shende, Nicolas Jullien, Fixed Income, US elections

    Ballots to Bonds

    Following the US election, what will the bond landscape look like around the world in the near term and the medium term? President-elect Trump should be able to implement much of his political agenda over the next few years. We think four themes stand out: Tariffs, Regulations, Tax Cuts, and Immigration. What we don’t yet know is the timing and the magnitude of these elements.
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Monthly Coffee Break, Asset Allocation

Deal with Trump 2.0

The results of the US elections are quickly being absorbed by financial markets, propelling US equity indices to new highs.
Nadège Dufossé, Florence Pisani, Asset Allocation, US elections

Update on US elections

Donald Trump heads back to the White House as the 47th President, with an increased likelihood of a Republican sweep. Yesterday (6 November), market reactions were strong, with US stocks hitting all-time highs, 10Y bond yields jumping to 4.5%, and the dollar surging against most currencies.
Asset Allocation

Sweet spot

All of a sudden, the US is in a sweet spot as growth accelerates, inflation falls, the Fed eases and both presidential candidates are ready to spend massively.
Nicolas Forest, Asset Allocation

Will 2025 be the year of debt reduction? 

The steady rise in massive deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios has made public debt a staple of the financial press. However, in the wake of European elections and the opening of excessive deficit procedures, this topic - neglected by previous governments - is once again becoming a political issue. By 2025, there will be no getting around the issue of fiscal rebalancing in developed countries.
Asset Allocation, Emerging Markets Equities

Update on China Stimulus: A Game Changer?

Before the measures recently announced, China was confronted with significant deflationary forces and was struggling to meet its 5% GDP growth target. Youth unemployment rate reached 24%, consumer confidence has been at rock bottom levels for years, household consumption has remained well below pre-pandemic trends and the real estate market has been falling for four years.
Asset Allocation, Nadège Dufossé

Is summer volatility inevitable?

The MSCI World (developed countries index) hit an all-time high in mid-July, following an almost uninterrupted 33% rise since its low point at the end of October 2023. Only a correction of around 5% in April 2024 enabled some reactive investors to jump on the bandwagon if they hadn't done so since the last quarter of last year.
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