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Coffee Break - Inflation still cooling

ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech and preliminary February data on the euro zone inflation will help investors weigh the odds of the ECB cutting rates prior to the Fed.
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Coffee Break - Enter the Dragon

Large parts of Asia will celebrate the Lunar New Year of the Dragon. In a timely manner, Chinese policymakers rolled out policy easing to defend markets and growth.
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Coffee Break - The busiest week of the year

Over the next 5 trading days, markets will work through the busiest week of the earnings season, as 108 companies representing 38.3% of the S&P 500’s market cap will report results, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, ExxonMobil, Mastercard, and Merck.
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Coffee Break

The New Hampshire primary follows the Republican caucuses in Iowa, where former President Donald Trump won decisively. Other candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, are eager to showcase the ongoing strength of their campaigns.
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The Iowa caucuses, which have served as the lead-off voting process in presidential elections since the 1970s, marks the kick off of the US election year.
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Coffee Break

On the data front in the US, December headline CPI is expected to marginally pick up while core inflation should confirm its downtrend. Barring an unexpected shock, we expect inflation at both sides of the Atlantic to end 2024 in shouting distance of central bank targets.
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2024 should bring better visibility for investors as the inflation/interest rate shock fades away and central banks will likely use the room for manoeuvre to reduce rates.
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The main focus will be on several central banks gathering for their final meeting of the year, notably the Fed, the ECB, the SNB and the BoE. The press conferences should help investors to schedule the start of the monetary easing cycle in 2024.
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The US job report will be in the spotlight. The US labour market is gradually cooling as the unemployment rate is creeping up.
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Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will hold speeches, giving more insights into their respective guidance into the final meetings of the year.
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Early estimates of manufacturing and services business activities for key countries, such as the US, the euro zone, Great Britain, and Japan will reveal whether economies are softening. Sentiment gauges in the euro zone and the US will give clues on the consumer mood just at the start of the holiday season sales.
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US inflation will be in the spotlight with the publication of key figures, such as core inflation rate, CPI and PPI.
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Markets will continue to digest the slowdown in the US job market, as the unemployment rate continued to creep higher, from 3.4% in April to 3.9%.
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Fed’s next rate decision on November 1st will be in the spotlight. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, but may be hesitant to indicate if it is done hiking for good after this week’s strong GDP reading.
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The meeting of the European Central Bank will be in the spotlight. The broad consensus is calling for a standby, but oil prices and labour market strength keep upside risks to inflation alive.
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Coffee Break

Inflation data will be in the spotlight with publications from the US, China and the euro zone. The Chinese PPI may confirm the slowing deflationary pressures.
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The US start the last quarter of 2023 with a government shutdown. One of the casualties is government data.
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Financial markets will continue to digest the remaining round of central bank meetings, including the latest one from the Bank of Japan.
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Central banks will take centre stage. Interest rate decisions are on the agenda of the US Federal Reserve Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan.
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The ECB will be in the spotlight and confirm the need for a 10th consecutive hike or pause. Under the weight of the cumulative 425 bps points of hikes since July 2022, the 20-member bloc’s economic activity is slowing down leaving consensus at a crossroad.
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Industrial production and balance of trade for key countries will likely put discrepancies in economic growth and international trade in the spotlight.
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Markets will continue to digest the “our-job-is-not-finished-yet” messages sent out by central bankers in Jackson Hole
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Coffee Break

The main event for investors will be the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Central bankers, policymakers, academics, and economists from around the world will discuss “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”.
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Final readings of inflation, including PPI and CPI for some key countries, such as the US and China, will be in the spotlight as investors look for clues on central banks’ next moves.

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