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Coffee Break

Central banks will be in the focus. In the US, the FOMC will decide on an additional policy tightening. Another 75bp rate hike in its funds rate is expected. Also, the publication of its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections will shed light on the future path of its monetary policy.
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Coffee Break

Inflation data will be in focus in the US and some European countries. It will be the last published US CPI and household’s expectations before the September Fed’s meeting on September 21st.
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Coffee Break

Europe will be the first in focus with the announcement of the new leader of the Tory party in the UK. The Queen will officially appoint the designated successor to Boris Johnson. Polls are in favour of Liz Truss.
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Coffee Break

Markets will digest central bankers’ rather hawkish comments made in Jackson Hole. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy will need to be restrictive for “some time”, warning that history “cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy”.
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This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium comes at a critical juncture for monetary policy as inflation is at a four-decade high and the Fed is implementing the sharpest tightening since the Paul Volcker’s era.
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Coffee Break

The markets will look at the next FOMC minutes. The Fed, which, decided to adopt a hawkish stance last month could announce an increase of fund rates.
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Coffee Break

Inflation will be in focus. Key markets, such as the US, China, Japan and some European countries will release either CPI, PPI or inflation figures.
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Coffee Break

Italy will also be under the spotlight in the coming weeks with the election of a new government. Italian political instability will be a hurdle to EU financial support.
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The focus will be on the European Central Bank’s tolerance to Italy’s widening yield premium. The central bank has disclosed a new ECB’s Anti-Crisis Tool: the “Transmission Protection Instrument”. The statement is vague enough to leave a question mark over whether Italy can meet the conditions.
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Coffee Break

All eyes will be on the reopening (or not) following the shutdown of the Nord Stream pipeline for a scheduled 10-day maintenance period. The gas pipeline connects Russia to Germany and supplies most of the European Union. The EU is looking into alternatives but may need to brace itself for a winter of limited - and expensive - gas supply.
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Coffee Break

Investors expect soft data releases in the Euro Area and Germany with the ZEW economic sentiment for July. The index had shown a slight deterioration last month and was already in deeply negative territory, as pessimistic analysts outnumbered optimistic ones.
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Final June PMI for key countries are due for publication. In the US, last week’s Manufacturing ISM data revealed shrinking orders as consumer spending is slowing down and inventories are piling up.
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Coffee Break

As Central banks are tightening into an economic slowdown any growth outlook-related data on supply and demand will be relevant. In the US, investors will scrutinize supply-related ISM, durable goods and inventory data, on the demand side, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence, as well as personal income and spending.
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Coffee Break

Investors will watch the releases of home sales and preliminary PMI surveys figures in the US, following last week's stream of soft data in retail sales, the Philadelphia Fed survey, housing starts and building permits. All these milestones will be key to assess the spreading of the slowdown to other parts of the economy.
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No doubt that the Federal Reserve will take note of the higher-than-expected US headline and core CPI readings for May.
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Until recently, central banks policies have largely been supportive and predictable. But recent multiple shocks have led to multiple policy responses.
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The upcoming US job report will be the next important milestone for investors: Fed funds rate hike expectations have been trimmed in recent weeks and the USD slid almost 3% from its mid-May peak.
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Coffee Break

Flash PMIs will be published, shedding some light on the impact of the war in Ukraine, COVID-19-related lockdowns in China and raw materials shortage on manufacturing activity.
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Industrial activity and consumption-related data will be published in China, Europe and in the US. The figures will show how resilient private demand remains amid the persistent high-inflation context.
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Coffee Break

Inflation will be one of the key focus points with data released in key countries including the US and China.
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Coffee Break

In the FOMC’s subsequent press briefing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will explain the size of the interest rate hike.
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Coffee Break

Having won France’s hotly contested presidential race, Emmanuel Macron will govern the 7th world’s economy for a second 5-year mandate.
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Flash PMI’s for key countries are due. The soft data will shed some light on both the dynamic and the heterogeneity between regional economic activity in the current context of elevated inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
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Coffee Break

French President Emmanuel Macron’s fight for a second term is being challenged by Marine Le Pen’s popularity in the world’s seventh largest economy.
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Coffee Break

The minutes from the last FOMC will be released. Investors will be eager to get more details on the monetary policy path, especially the balance sheet reduction aka quantitative tightening.

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