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June was marked by a significant uptick in political uncertainty both in the US and the EU. European parliamentary elections saw right-wing parties gain increased prominence, particularly in France where the strength of their victory led President Macron to call surprise legislative elections.
After focusing on the elections in France and the UK, investors’ attention is rapidly shifting towards the United States. The first presidential debate has increased the likelihood of a second Donald Trump presidency, implying a potential risk of higher inflation in 2025.
The month of June was relatively noisy for markets, especially in Europe where geopolitical risk remains one of investors’ primary areas for concern. In the US, the latest macroeconomic data continues to indicate that the Fed might succeed in piloting the economy to a soft landing.