Asignación de activos

The Fed has delivered a hike where investors just months ago expected cuts. Markets now anticipate further tightening through 2027, yet US equities remain higher this year. Earnings expectations have held up through the reversal in monetary expectations. The upcoming Q3 reporting season will show whether companies can deliver on them.

Solid growth is giving central banks more room to be hawkish.

The global cycle is still catching its breath. World PMI edged up only marginally in June, still consistent with instant growth close to 2.5% in Q2.

El paso de un mundo «blando» a uno «duro» constituye un cambio de régimen duradero, propiciado por la rivalidad geopolítica, la competencia en materia de IA y la escasez estructural de recursos.

Growth is slowing. Consumers are becoming more selective. Yet demand for strategic assets continues to accelerate.

Bond markets are pricing the war in Iran. Equity markets are not. That divergence has become a defining feature in the past month. The conflict has now moved beyond the initial shock phase and has entered a regime of repeated escalation, partial de-escalation and unresolved disruption.

Financial markets have entered a regime where escalation and de-escalation are no longer discrete events, but part of a repeating pattern. The war in Iran has not evolved linearly; it has oscillated, with periods of intensity followed by temporary pauses, each feeding renewed uncertainty rather than resolution.

Financial markets have entered a phase where geopolitics, commodities and monetary policy are interacting more directly than at any point in recent years.

The major US equity indices have gone nowhere. Since the late-October peak in Technology, the S&P 500 has moved sideways, masking what has in fact been a decisive rotation. Energy has rallied more than 20%, Materials close to 20%, and Consumer Staples well into double digits. Technology, by contrast, is down roughly 11% over the same period.

The year opens with a global economy that is neither stalling nor accelerating decisively, but increasingly shaped by overlapping and, at times, conflicting forces. Growth .

Global growth is slow but steady, AI is driving investment cycles, and central banks are backstopping risk. Explore our 2026 outlook: equity conviction, monetary policy shifts, and the evolving role of gold and EM debt in balanced portfolios.

Global markets enter November with better visibility than at any point this year – growth stronger than expected, inflation lower than expected and policy still broadly supportive.

Economic signals remain uneven, data visibility is clouded by the US government shutdown, and inflation is edging higher again.

Since last Sunday (October 5), France has been plunged into a new political crisis — unprecedented under the Fifth Republic. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned just a few hours after forming his government, due to partisan deadlock and his inability to build a stable majority.

The global economy approaches the final stretch of 2025 at an inflection point.

Desde enero hasta finales de mayo, la renta variable europea recuperó el liderazgo. En moneda local, el MSCI EMU batió al MSCI World en aproximadamente seis a siete puntos porcentuales , y la calidad de ese avance fue inequívocamente de valor: los bancos y las aseguradoras lideraron los avances, mientras que los servicios de telecomunicaciones, las empresas de servicios públicos y el sector industrial aportaron una amplitud constante.

Market Matters Podcast is an essential audio source for expert analysis, financial insight, and timely market updates from New York Life Investments.

An irresistible momentum is shaping global markets, as investors face a paradox of rising risk perception alongside rallying assets. Economic data releases, trade tariffs and geopolitical signals remain noisy – yet financial markets continue to advance.

Al momento de escribir este artículo, el mercado estadounidense se ha acercado a su máximo histórico, alcanzado anteriormente en febrero de 2025, y la mayoría de las clases de activos están registrando desempeños positivos en divisa local desde principios de año.

A pesar del aumento de las tensiones geopolíticas, la economía mundial mostró una sorprendente resistencia a principios de 2025, y la inflación siguió normalizándose.

The global economy remains in a delicate state of balance. The US and China have agreed to a 90-day tariff rollback but uncertainty remains high, especially with the US still imposing significant duties.

Aunque navegar por las estrellas puede parecer valiente y aventurero, no lo recomendaríamos en los mercados financieros. Más vale ir equipado con una h0 sólida brújula.

The global economic cycle is not ending yet – it is reshaping. Following a volatile first quarter and trade escalation at the start of April, May 2025 shows de-escalation amid numerous trade tariff headlines.

La elección de Donald Trump, unida al control del Partido Republicano de ambas cámaras del Congreso, ha dado lugar a un nuevo panorama político en Estados Unidos. Qué decisiones clave debe tomar la nueva administración? ¿Qué impacto tendrán estas decisiones en el entorno macroeconómico, los mercados financieros y los inversores?

April 2025 marks a turning point in the global economic narrative. In the wake of the United States’ sharp tariff escalation – dubbed “Liberation Day” – investors are confronting the ripple effects of a protectionist revival.